As George Will aptly commented many moons ago, the ancient Republican formula for winning the presidency was to take the South, most of the Midwest and West, then spend the equivalent of Brazil’s GDP and take Ohio. Barack Obama destroyed it in 2008. Currently, the Buckeye State is fully Republican, while all eyes are on its neighbor, Pennsylvania. This is a state that should be a win for Republicans, given its hunting culture, working-class white enclave and not-so-progressive state politics. Yet over the past four decades, the GOP has only managed to win the state in the 1988 and 2016 presidential elections. The Keystone State is called a swing state – I’m not sure that nickname is appropriate.
The Democratic Party’s plan is straightforward: augment turnout in the collar counties around Philadelphia that they have perfected, and do the same in Allegheny County. This has been paying off for several decades. There were signs of hope in 2011 in the back-to-back local court races, where Republicans expanded their reach, retaking Westmoreland County for the first time since the 1950s. These are not stimulating races, but they provide the foundation and candidate base for future statewide races. This failed quickly. The Pennsylvania Republican Party does not have a deep field of candidates, and that is why we have Dr. Oz as our 2022 Senate midterm candidate. Whoever wins Pennsylvania in 2024 will rule the table for the rest of election night, which is why Democrats are salivating at the prospect of Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s current term, which has an approval rating of 57%. One thing key to the Democrats’ Keystone protocol may shock the party’s more progressive elements: Trump supporters (via Axles) [emphasis mine]: :
New polling and interviews with top Pennsylvania political figures highlight the emergence of this critical voting bloc.
A novel Quinnipiac poll puts Shapiro’s approval rating at an enviable 57%, and his political standing has been boosted by the rapid reconstruction of the I-95 corridor severely damaged in a June car crash.
Shapiro wins the approval of about a third of Trump voters, even if polling shows Trump statistically tied with President Biden in the 2024 matchup. Biden’s approval rating in the statewide poll is just 39%.
A novel analysis published by the American Enterprise Institute finds that there is a “portion of white rural working-class voters [that] will actually support the Democrat with the right aesthetics and message.”
[…]
Bottom line: If Democrats manage to retain even a fraction of Trump, Fetterman and Shapiro’s blue-collar voters in 2024, it bodes well for Biden’s chances of winning a second term.
And if Democrats manage to recreate this coalition in Pennsylvania, it will also bode well for victories in Wisconsin and Michigan – blue wall states where a flip would all but guarantee a presidential victory.
White working class voters matter. This is another red flag showing how Democrats could make their lives much easier if they aligned their messages with common goals, instead of focusing on urban population centers, non-white voting blocs, and demonizing working people. Mr. Shapiro did it. We should look out for this name for many years to come as his candidacy for the office of president. Axios added that it is committed to teachers unions, supports private school vouchers and has removed a college degree requirement for most government jobs.
However, Trump’s level of support in the current political climate is extraordinary. This again shows, or should remind the national media, that the Trump coalition is not reliably Republican. They will vote for Democrats just like they did in 2018, 2020 and 2022. This is a coalition where a significant share describes themselves as economically progressive. They cannot be pigeonholed. The publication added that there has been a keen decline in support for Democrats among non-white voters, which is something to watch, but for now Biden can easily win Pennsylvania again and get a second term.
