The Republican Party nominated its first presidential candidate in 1856, pitting John C. Fremont against Democrat James Buchanan, who was a senator from Pennsylvania.
Fremont lost Pennsylvania to Buchanan and lost the election.
Four years later, Republicans nominated Abraham Lincoln, who ran in a divided nation against a divided Democratic Party and won Pennsylvania – and the presidency.
Lincoln won Pennsylvania again in 1864, and Ulysses S. Grant won it in 1868 and 1872.
A pattern has been established: Only two Republicans have been elected president since the Civil War, losing Pennsylvania. The first was Richard M. Nixon, who lost the state in 1968 after defeating Democratic Vice President Hubert Humphrey in the presidential race.
But four years later, Nixon came back and won Pennsylvania, defeating 49 of the 50 states to win re-election.
George W. Bush then managed to lose Pennsylvania twice while winning the presidency twice – first to Vice President Al Gore in 2000 and then to Senator John Kerry in 2004.
But George W. Bush’s presidential victories showed an even clearer pattern than Pennsylvania’s continued importance to Republican candidates: Bush won Ohio in both 2000 and 2004.
If he lost Ohio, he would lose both elections.
In 2000, Ohio had 21 Electoral College votes. Bush defeated Gore in the Electoral College by a vote of 271 to 266. Had Ohio elected Gore, Gore would have won 287 to 250. In 2004, Bush defeated Kerry in the Electoral College by a vote of 286 to 251. In that election, Ohio had 20 votes in the Electoral College vote. If the state had chosen Kerry this year, Kerry would have won over Bush 271 to 266.
There were Republican presidential candidates who won Ohio while losing the election. Fremont did so in 1856. James G. Blaine did likewise in 1884; Benjamin Harrison (who won 22 of the state’s 23 Electoral College votes) in 1892; Thomas Dewey in 1944; and Richard Nixon in 1960
But no Republican has been elected president without winning Ohio.
All 17 Republican Party candidates – starting with Abraham Lincoln – who have won the presidential election won Ohio.
Similarly, only two of the 17 Republicans who won the presidential election did so by losing to Michigan. In 1968, Nixon won the election, losing to Michigan; and George W. Bush did so in both 2000 and 2004.
Herbert Hoover was elected president in 1928 when he won Michigan. But four years later, in the middle of the Great Depression, he lost both Michigan and the presidency to Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
Only three Republicans were elected president, losing Wisconsin. Calvin Coolidge lost it in 1924 to Senator Robert La Follette, a third-party candidate from Wisconsin. George H. W. Bush lost it in 1988 to Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts; and George W. Bush lost it in 2000 and 2004 to Gore and Kerry.
William Howard Taft won Wisconsin in 1908, defeating Democratic presidential candidate William Jennings Bryan. But then Taft lost Wisconsin in 1912 to Democratic New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson when former President Teddy Roosevelt ran as a third-party candidate.
Hoover followed Taft’s example, winning Wisconsin in 1928 when he defeated Democratic New York Governor Al Smith for the presidency, but then lost it in 1932 to Democratic New York Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt.
The Bush family holds this distinction: Every Republican Party candidate who has won the presidency from Lincoln through Reagan has won Iowa. Then George H. W. Bush lost Iowa in 1988 and still managed to win the election. However, in 1992, Bush lost Iowa again and lost the presidency.
Eight years later, George W. Bush emulated his father by losing Iowa and winning the presidency. But in 2004, the younger Bush broke with his father: he won Iowa and won re-election.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote over Donald Trump by a margin of 48.2% to 46.1%, winning by over 2.8 million votes.
However, Trump defeated Clinton in the Electoral College 304 to 227, according to the Federal Election Commission.
This was because he won Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College votes), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (6) – a result no Republican presidential candidate has achieved since Ronald Reagan .
With a total of 70 electoral votes from these five states, he could lose Florida (and its 29 electoral votes) and still win the Electoral College 275 to 256.
The outcome of next week’s election will not be decided by massive majorities in California and New York.
But that could be determined by voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa.
Terence P. Jeffrey is the editor-in-chief of CNSnews.com.
