Anyone who has read this over the years knows that I am not a forecaster. I rarely take the precious space this wonderful website offers me to tell you what I think or believe might happen in the future, especially when it comes to how Americans vote.
Anyone who tries to predict how the American electorate will react to Donald Trump’s candidacy is lying to you and themselves and engaging in a fool’s errand. This is a political figure who has defied every ounce of conventional wisdom in his five brief years of involvement in electoral politics, and if the 2020 election so far is any indication, the phenomenon continues.
Interestingly, most of my very well-paid colleagues who engage in the gloomy art of political commentary and analysis on television did not learn this straightforward lesson after the 2016 presidential election. But again they tell their viewers that the election is “Biden to lose”, “Trump is far behind” and (my personal favorite) “Biden is the favorite in 87 out of 100 scenarios!”
However, given the well-crafted disclaimer above, I’d like to take a few moments to explain why I believe President Trump’s debate appearance on Thursday night may very well be the game-changing event he needed to go straight for re-election in eleven days.
1. Tone
I’m not one of those voters who really cares whether a politician “sounds presidential” or not. Most men who have served as president of the United States have had enormous egos. That’s kind of a prerequisite for presenting yourself as a potential “leader of the free world,” right? I expect that most presidents and presidential candidates in my lifetime will be insufferable jerks behind the scenes who put on a bogus “presidential” face to deceive voters.
That said, we must acknowledge that many voters do desire a straightforward, earnest tone from their president, and their opinions on the matter should not be disregarded. After all, they vote too.
Latest RCP average from polls shows Biden leading 51% to 42%. (I know national polls are irrelevant because of the electoral college, but when it comes to the point I’m about to make, national polls actually serve a purpose).
For me, the remarkable aspect of this poll isn’t that Biden is leading. It shows that 7% of the electorate is undecided. Really? Undecided? This overdue in the game? What about these two politicians? One who has been ingrained into our consciousness in every aspect of our lives for the past five years and is now president, and the other who was vice president and has been in the public sphere for nearly fifty years? Who the hell are these 7% who can’t make up their minds?
And then it hit me: They’re not undecided, they’re leaning toward Trump, but they’re waiting to make a final commitment. Something is stopping them. Something relatively elusive. It’s a matter of “tone”. They don’t like his policies and his achievements, but they just don’t like his attitude. They prefer a “presidential” issue.
Trump set the tone last night to facilitate them make that commitment in the final days of the campaign.
Again, I’m not concerned about the tone issue; I evaluate the results. Would I want my president to be the second coming of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln? Bright. Is this guy even running for office in this era? Hell no… I mean, mobs tear down statues… true Washington and Lincoln, so why should the version from our era become more popular?
2. Oil
It cannot be overstated: Getting Biden to admit he would end the oil industry was a watershed moment. It was a perfect confirmation of how radical, out of touch and destructive Joe Biden and the Democratic Party have become.
The proof is the Biden campaign’s embarrassing attempt to set the world on fire and tell us all that what we heard is not what we heard.
Biden’s team is seeking to clarify Biden’s comments about the oil industry, including: @KBeds saying that Biden meant ending oil subsidies.
— Annie Linskey (@AnnieLinskey) October 23, 2020
Yes, that’s right. He only talked about subsidies. OK… let’s watch this moment together, shall we?
Trump: “Would you shut down the oil industry?”
Biden: ‘I would leave the oil industry, yes’
Trump: “This is an important statement”
Biden: “This is an important statement”
This major announcement will make Joe Biden the loser of the election. His plan is too radical and will destroy our economy! pic.twitter.com/UVYXm8MmUv
— Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) October 23, 2020
Biden has been telling the country he is not beholden to radicals in his party pushing the Green New Deal. Of course, we don’t really believe him, but many voters are more than prepared to be fooled by such gaslighting. But this is indisputable. It comes from his own mouth and semi-coherent words.
It’s less about oil, although in Pennsylvania, Ohio and really anywhere else, people like cars (I hear cars are large in Michigan), but the point is that Biden has willingly confirmed that he is allied with the radical left to subvert the our country’s economy and way of life upside down.
There’s one more thing right now that’s helping Trump. Watch the video again. Can you see this? Trump created this moment. He had to take control of the stage, raise his hand to stop the moderator and directly challenge Biden with the question that needed to be asked and impose the agenda. This is a step towards alpha leadership and it is something that people really want in a leader, regardless of politics.
3. Outsider
Donald Trump has been president for four years. He is the leader of the free world and has been at the center of every American political issue for over five years. And yet somehow he still runs as an outsider.
It’s an amazing thing.
He’s gotten facilitate from the Democrats since they nominated America’s longest-serving politician, who has been the ultimate insider and embodiment of stagnant, do-nothing DC politics this entire time. Trump skillfully accepted this gift and delivered the most essential message of his candidacy last night.
Pattern:
“This is a typical political statement. Let’s get this China thing over with, and then he’ll look: “Family at the table,” everything. When I see this, I am a typical politician. I’m not a typical politician. That’s why I have this impression. chosen.”
burning pic.twitter.com/RAXX8Udww1
— Not the bee (@Not_the_Bee) October 23, 2020
“You see, with these politicians it’s all talk, no action. Why didn’t he do it? [You say]“This is what I’m going to do when I become president,” you were vice president with Obama as your president and your leader for eight years. Why didn’t you do it? You had eight years to do it.”
President @realDonaldTrump to Joe Biden: “you had 8 years to do this… you just talk and do nothing”https://t.co/gPwo1VdWqE pic.twitter.com/dcxMURBMVf
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 23, 2020
“Joe, I ran because of you. I ran because of Barack Obama. Because you did a poor job. If I thought you did a good job, I would never have run for office.”
“You know, Joe… I ran away because of you. I ran because of Barack Obama… because you did poorly. If I thought you did a good job, I would never have escaped. I was running away because of you… Now I look at you… you are a politician… I was running away because of you. @realDonaldTrump #Debaty2020 pic.twitter.com/B9Dnn1aIGp
—Dan Scavino???? (@DanScavino) October 23, 2020
In the last part of the debate, Trump managed to become very comfortable with this topic. Not surprisingly, this is what gave him the lead in the 2016 Republican primary and victory in November. Anyone who is still undecided is likely a voter who does not traditionally regularly choose one party or the other. They are independent. These voters like aliens.
They liked Ross Perot. They like Barack Obama. They like Donald Trump.
He was able to remind them that even though he is president, he is still a consummate outsider compared to the likes of Joe Biden.
Once again, I will not pretend to tell you how the voters will turn out in eleven days, and I will not insult your intelligence by assuring you that the matter is already settled for any of these candidates. If I had that kind of undeserved arrogance and hubris, I would become a TV analyst.
I’m just saying this; During the last debate, President Trump had several essential goals to achieve in order to give voters who are shy or hesitant about Trump enough reason to trust him. In my opinion, for what it’s worth, he achieved these essential goals. And then some.
