Last week we mentioned the Trafalgar Group, a poll that once again broke out of the pack with its methodology and election predictions. We’ll discuss their findings below, but first let’s examine the consensus. Nationwide, the polling average shows Joe Biden driving comfortably and maintaining modest advantages in key battlefield states. If you’re looking for reasons to believe the polls this time, you’ll find them plenty data points there. The fact that the Democratic challenger is considered a hefty favorite is neither a coincidence nor a conspiracy:
The massive difference from 2016: extremely few undecideds or third-party voters. Much less room for a tardy move. https://t.co/o0G2m3tlTP
— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) October 23, 2020
In 2016, Trump moved these districts by 6.3 points. Biden’s advantage in these districts is by an average of 4.1 points (a shift of 10.4 points).
— Brandon (@Brand_Allen) October 24, 2020
However, as we discussed last week, there are several factors that are moving in the opposite direction, and Trafalgar polls show that the “smart money” is wrong. In an interview with the company’s chief interviewer on my radio showI asked why their data so often looked like massive outliers. Robert Cahaly explained how their methods differ from those of other pollsters and why he believes the president is in a much stronger position to win another term than almost all of his firm’s competitors would suggest:
.@trafalgar_grupa Pollster @RobertCahaly Explains their survey methodology#FoxNews #FoxNewsRadio #Polls #TalkRadio https://t.co/JnKEJO53rr
— The Guy Benson Show (@GuyBensonShow) October 23, 2020
Cahaly said he thinks Texas, Georgia and Ohio are basically Trump favorites and are not as competitive as conventional wisdom suggests. He also believes the incumbent has an advantage in Arizona and North Carolina (and possibly Iowa) and is competitive elsewhere, allowing him to have several different paths to the 270 electoral college seats. Needless to say, Trafalgar and Cahaly are in a complex position and if they are proven wrong within days, their reputations will suffer, perhaps irreparably. But there’s a reason I don’t dismiss them out of hand. National Reviews recalls Rich Lowry “Trafalgar’s successes in 2016, when (unlike other pollsters) Trump led in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and in 2018, Ron DeSantis won the governor’s race” in Florida.
Many other pollsters had misjudged these races, and Trafalgar’s figures, veering off the beaten path, looked somewhat prophetic. On the other hand, the company predicted Brian Kemp’s 12-point victory in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race. They were ten points away from the deficit and Kemp won on a whistle. Here’s what to watch out for, here’s their latest study from North Carolina seven percentage points more favorable for Trump than the latest CBS/YouGov poll from the state:
Our fresh product @trafalgar_grupa #2020Elections #The state of the battlefield #NCsurvey conducted on October 20–22 shows Trump’s growing advantage:
48.8% @realDonaldTrump,
46.0% @JoeBiden,
2.3% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.2% all others,
1.7% I. See the report: https://t.co/vhyhpxRW91 pic.twitter.com/BMNQ1IBkNG— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 25, 2020
Cahaly let me in our interview that his group will release data from more than a half-dozen swing states in the next 48 hours. We will soon find out whether they will become one of the most sought-after interviewers in the country, or whether some significant successes in recent cycles will turn out to be just blips of good fortune. I’ll leave you with data guru Nate Silver throwing ice water on the internals of Trafalgar (content warning):
I’m not a fan of Let’s Delve Into The Crosstabs, but some of the stuff here is just crazy. Trump will not win 30% of the Democrat vote in Michigan. Biden won’t win 25% of Republicans. Trump will not win independent candidates by 32 points. https://t.co/YJJUHUxeE0 pic.twitter.com/lOjynoRJLZ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 25, 2020
