Even with Republicans soon regaining the Senate majority after eight years in the minority, the prevailing opinion in Washington is that Democrats are likely to regain that majority in 2016. It’s certainly possible, but it doesn’t constitute a slam dunk.
On the surface, the number of Senate seats gained in 2016 looks as unfavorable for Republicans as the number of Senate seats gained for Democrats this year. Of the 36 seats won in 2014, Democrats defended 21, including seven in states held by Mitt Romney. Of the 34 seats currently won in 2016, Republicans will defend an even greater number – 24, including seven in states that Barack Obama won in 2012.
In a country that is increasingly voting casually, there is a high correlation between voting for president and voting for the Senate. FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta calculated that “it explained more than 75 percent of the variation in the results of individual (Senate) races this year. This is the highest result in history.”
Democrats lost six of Romney’s seven Senate seats in the November election and appear almost certain to lose the seventh when Louisiana votes in a Dec. 6 runoff between incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu and Republican challenger Bill Cassidy.
Democrats also lost seats in two states where Obama had narrow leads, Colorado (51%) and Iowa (52%), and came close to losing them in two more: Virginia (51%) and New Hampshire (52%). .). That’s roughly what you’d expect, given the president’s job approval has declined by about 8 percent since November 2012.
We don’t know what the approval of Obama’s position will be in November 2016, and he won’t be on the ballot, so the correlation between the president’s approval and voting for the senator may be lower. However, Obama’s percentage in 2012 will likely be a good indicator of the balance of opinion in each state.
But Republicans don’t face the danger in 2016 that Democrats faced in 2014. Six of the seven seats Democrats won in Romney states this year were in states where Obama lost a double-digit lead. Only North Carolina was close, and Republican Thom Tillis won there by the same 2-point margin that Romney carried the state in 2012.
By contrast, six of the seven seats Republicans will defend in 2016 are in states that Obama had between 50 and 52 percent of the vote – states that are no more Democratic than Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia, where Republican non-incumbents were competitive this year.
In three of these Obama states, GOP officials showed they can significantly outpace their party – Charles Grassley in Iowa (52% Obama), Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire (52%) and Rob Portman in Ohio (51%). They can do it again.
Three others wouldn’t have to get too far ahead of the party line to win – Marco Rubio in Florida (where Obama got 50 percent), Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania (52 percent) and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin (52 percent).
Of course, it’s possible that the hugely popular Grassley decides to retire at age 83, and any of the others could lose to a credible opponent. Victory for either of them wouldn’t be too steep though.
Only one Republican incumbent sits in a largely Democratic state – Mark Kirk of Illinois (57%). But Kirk won the seat along party lines among wealthy suburbanites, the same group that was crucial to Bruce Rauner’s victory in his campaign for governor this year. Kirk can be particularly pleased with his successful fight to recover from a stroke he suffered in 2012.
It is worth adding that it cannot be ruled out that Republicans may lose Richard Burr’s seat in North Carolina (48% of Obama’s). Sometimes a seemingly unthreatening place becomes vulnerable, as happened this year in Kansas.
Eight of the 10 seats Democrats are defending are in states that Obama had at least 54 percent of the vote and do not look vulnerable. Michael Bennet in Colorado (51% for Obama) was warned by the defeat of his colleague Mark Udall. Harry Reid in Nevada (52% vs. Obama) seems unbeatable, especially against Gov. Brian Sandoval, who was just re-elected with 71%. votes. But Reid has beaten the odds before.
Democrats do look well-positioned to win Senate seats, but not necessarily in the numbers needed to overturn the 54-46 Republican majority.