WASHINGTON, D.C. — President-elect Donald Trump visited the nation’s capital on Wednesday to meet with congressional Republicans. When he did so, the group of economic leaders gathered nearby had a straightforward message for him and his future administration: You can’t have powerful economic growth without powerful immigration.
Trump won on November 5 after a campaign based largely on attacks on immigration and criticism of the economy under Democratic President Joe Biden. In a speech at an event hosted by the American Immigration Forum, a prominent Republican economist said the two issues are inextricably linked, though not in the way the Trump campaign suggested.
“You can’t be America first and put immigration last,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, White House economist under President George H. W. Bush and top economic adviser to Arizona Sen. John McCain before the 2008 presidential campaign. “The numbers just don’t add up.”
Holtz-Eakin and the other panelists emphasized that with shrinking class sizes in American elementary schools, the country needs immigration to strengthen its workforce and spur economic growth.
“Anyone with any arithmetic knowledge knows that immigration is critical to our future,” Holtz-Eakin said. “Demographics are baked into the cake. Native Americans have such a low fertility rate that without immigration this country will look like Japan. It will be very, very old and smaller, and smaller, and smaller. We will lose our economic vitality.”
During the campaign, Trump promised swift mass deportations of immigrants who are not here legally or will be deemed undocumented in the future. But Jon Baselice, vice president of immigration policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said that’s probably not possible.
“If you look at the resources they have and the resources they are likely to get, they need to set expectations realistically,” he said. “If they want to deport millions of people in a very short period of time, they probably won’t succeed.”
Meanwhile, the lack of immigrants may have earnest economic consequences.
The Pennsylvania Chamber of Commerce conducts an annual survey of employers in the state. “Starting about a decade ago, staffing sufficiency has been on the list of concerns,” said Alex Halper, the organization’s vice president of government affairs.
“We have historically had small kindergarten classes over the last two years, and by far the fastest growing demographic is people 80 and older,” Halper said. “At the same time, out of 100 job offers, 56 people are looking for work in Pennsylvania. We simply don’t have the people to fill positions for employers in Pennsylvania.”
Panelists said immigrants are particularly vital to the technology sector.
Pearl Chang Esau is the founder and CEO of Arizona Group Shan strategy that advises companies on how toimprove its economic, environmental and social impact.” She said “Dreamers” – foreigners who came to the United States at a youthful age and were allowed to stay under former President Barack Obama’s executive order – represent an vital piece of the technology puzzle.
“Thirty percent of college dreamers choose STEM fields and graduate without the ability to work,” she said. “So bringing this population into our workforce is an obvious choice.”
There seemed to be widespread unease at the conference after Trump’s victory over a decidedly anti-immigration agenda.
“Many of us sense that there is a gigantic mountain ahead of us,” said Jennie Murray, president and CEO of the National Immigration Forum, opening the conference.
But U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., expressed hope that a coalition of business, law enforcement and faith leaders – which he called “business, badges and the Bible” – would build pressure for bipartisan solutions, which polls show the majority of the public wants. Suozzi expressed hope that polarization on the issue will decrease so that a critical mass of society can view immigration as a nuanced issue.
“Anyone who says, ‘Why don’t you just…’ doesn’t know what they’re talking about,” he said to applause.
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