After President Joe Biden’s extremely divisive Thursday evening State of the Union address, the 2024 general election has become even more intense. You could say the same after Biden’s speech on January 6 and his rants and screams about abortion during the 51st anniversary of abortion. Roe v. Wade, but this time, former and potentially future president Donald Trump is now even closer to becoming the Republican nominee. However, beyond the presidential race, there are several top senatorial races in which Republicans have a real chance to regain the chamber.
Looks like there are at least three.”Drop it offSenate seats: Ohio, Montana and Arizona. In the first two elections, vulnerable Democratic incumbents – Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester, respectively – are up for re-election, while the Democrat became an independent senator. Kyrsten Sinema retires in Arizona.
The Decision Center’s headquarters believes there are five such seats to be replaced and currently projects Republicans to be a majority with 50 seats to Democrats’ 45 seats. In addition to the three above, they also include Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and Nevada, where Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for re-election.
Build your own prediction map for this year’s U.S. Senate elections using DDHQ/@Hill“Election Center 2024”:https://t.co/il5CwCdEdL
— Decision DeskHQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) March 7, 2024
As for Montana, it’s definitely worth watching no matter what, considering how much of a red state it is, though Tester held his own. Trump won the state in 2016 by 20.5 points AND in 2020 by 16.4 points. Republican Senator Steve Daines also won re-election in 2020 by 10 points. Tester won re-election anyway in 2018 by 3.5 pointshowever, that’s partly because his Republican opponent, Rep. Matt Rosendale, was and still is considered frail on fundraising and other issues.
In fact, Rosendale had a very miniature campaign in the Republican primary to challenge Tester again, although he both announced and suspended it last month. After speculation about whether he would seek re-election to the House of Representatives, Rosendale announced last week that he would, only to announce on Friday that he was not actually running. He faced a crowded primary in the race he’s currently in and mentioned “death threats” and “false and defamatory rumors.”
— Matt Rosendale (@MattForMontana) March 8, 2024
Daines, who is also chairman of the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC), endorsed Tim Sheehy, CEO of Bridger Aerospace and former Navy SEAL. Trump also endorsed him last month.
Emerson College recently published a survey about the Montana Senate race when it comes to the Tester-Sheehy matchup. Although Tester still leads, the race is much more competitive, especially since Tester’s lead is within the margin of error.
MONTANA SURVEY z @Hill
2024 US Senate Elections
Tester (D-inc.) 44%
Sheehy (R) 42%
14% undecidedhttps://t.co/0ADF8UvFWo pic.twitter.com/xMIJ7DHi3b— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) March 6, 2024
Tester currently leads 44 percent to Sheey’s 42 percent, while 14 percent are undecided. In October, Tester had 39% of Sheehy’s support of 35%, while 21% were undecided.
As many others have noted when sharing the poll via the Interactive Polls account, this is especially noteworthy considering Sheehy’s ID isn’t very high yet.
Do you only have +2 for a challenger with a fraction of the name ID and under 45%? https://t.co/A8pKelAe28 pic.twitter.com/anHlTKJa3I
— Luke Thompson (@ltthompso) March 6, 2024
Strong for Sheehy, who has a fraction of Tester’s name ID and is within 1.4%.
There is no universe in which Trump wins Montana by 20 and Tester – the guy who voted with Biden over 90% of the time – keeps his seat. https://t.co/Jn0nshVUES
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) March 6, 2024
Sheehy certainly has room to grow and improve. He has the time and resources to do so, especially since he has Trump’s support and mantle to ride on. Trump also leads Biden in polls by a 56 to 35 percent margin, with just 9 percent undecided.
As others have also noted, the crosstabs show that of the 14 percent of undecided voters in the Senate race, 61 percent of them say they support Trump.
The latest survey, conducted by Emerson College from February 26 to March 2, surveyed 1,000 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
I appreciate Emerson presenting the ballot as a pivot table because you can see that the 14% of voters who are undecided in the Senate vote are 61%-13% for Trump in the presidential vote
this will be hard for Tester https://t.co/J4RQXDIlRx
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) March 6, 2024
Thursday’s State of the Union address is critical in this race because Tester responded over X from his official account. He talked about how his guest was a veteran who was exposed to toxins while serving in Vietnam and received PACT Act benefits.
He also commented on the content of Biden’s speech. Describing “pressing issues for Montanans,” Tester listed issues such as “honoring our commitment to our nation’s veterans, lowering housing and grocery costs, securing our southern border, and stopping the deadly flow of fentanyl to keep our communities safe,” and getting ahead of the threat from China.”
“While President Biden addressed some of these issues tonight, he made it clear that I will oppose his administration if he fails to get the job done for our state,” Tester shared, adding: “I will continue to work with every Republican or Democrats to ensure that we remain the greatest state in the greatest country in the world.”
My statement regarding today’s State of the Union address: pic.twitter.com/2mFFJfnOlP
— Senator Jon Tester (@SenatorTester) March 8, 2024
Tester may be aware that he is running for re-election as a Democrat in a red state, but he is still a Democrat. What’s more, if the Tester wanted to Really boldly, perhaps he would criticize Biden for his generally nasty rhetoric and attacks on Trump and Republicans, as well as his obsession with such peripheral issues for liberals as Ukraine, January 6, and abortion.
It’s worth noting that Biden only had a 28% approval rating for the job, according to an Emerson College poll.
In another VIP article from last August, we highlighted Tester’s opinion that Biden is “absolutely 100 percent on it,” as well as stating, “I think people are making this a bigger deal than it actually is,” when it comes to concerns about the mental fitness and health of the 81-year-old president during his next term.
Since then, Biden has only gotten older as he seems to care less. Numerous polls also show that Americans are quite concerned about the president’s condition.
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester says Biden “supports him 100 percent.”
“He has memory, cognitive abilities…” pic.twitter.com/IbWAtJg8el
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 17, 2023
