Looking back over the last century, there have been two great coalition builders in presidential politics: FDR and Richard Nixon.
Franklin Roosevelt broke Lincoln’s lock on the presidency, which had given the Republicans the White House for 56 of the previous 72 years. From 1932 to 1964, FDR’s party won seven of nine elections.
Nixon broke through in 1968 and built a New Majority that gave the GOP the White House for 20 of the next 24 years.
But the Nixon-Reagan coalition has aged and faded.
In five of the last six presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has won the popular vote. And no less than 18 states, including the four most populous – California, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New York – went Democratic in all six elections.
Additionally, four states key to victory and once considered reliably Republican – Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado – turned purple.
The GOP is also struggling with a demographic crisis. The share of white people, who provide nearly 90 percent of the Republican vote in presidential years, has steadily declined.
So is Hillary inevitable?
With the money she manages to raise and the support of the sisterhood, she may be able to clear the field for the nomination. And in the general election, it’s tough to predict which Republican could take away her 270 electoral votes today.
However, this lady has frail points. If elected, Hillary will be, at age 69, the oldest Democratic president in history. Husband Bill was almost a quarter of a century younger at the time of his inauguration, as was Barack Obama.
Her 2001 book tour for Hard Choices, along with a tale of woe about being “broke,” revealed that in 2014 the queen of privilege was detached from the harsh realities of life in Central America.
Moreover, there is Clinton fatigue in the country and in this capital. Americans under 30 have never known a time when she wasn’t around.
It looks like her memoir will live on long before her publishers earn anything close to the $14 million advance she was rumored to have received. Someone at Simon & Schuster is going against the wall.
And the Democratic left is playing on the pitch.
Are her achievements in office impressive?
The most critical vote she cast in the Senate in eight years – to drag America into war with Iraq – she now admits was a mistake. And this is no miniature thing, considering the disaster that is today’s Iraq.
Her background as Secretary of State?
The most memorable moment was the announcement of the “reset” with Russia. How does it work?
Not only must Hillary answer for the failures that led to the Benghazi massacre and her absence after it, but she must also defend the foreign policies that have made her country less respected on every continent.
While most Americans support President Obama’s decisions to end America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is something about his international leadership that is reminiscent of the Carter era.
And while there is endless talk in this town about an intra-GOP clash between the establishment and the Tea Party, cracks and fissures are also evident in the Obama-Clinton party.
As once noted, the Democratic Party is a conclave of warring tribes gathered in anticipation of common plunder. But the venerable formula, dating back to FDR, of “tax and tax and spend and spend and pick and choose” may have worn skinny.
The US government is deeply in debt and heading even deeper. State capitals have hit a wall, forcing painful decisions to cut education spending, pensions or boost taxes. Even in the bluest states, governors like Jerry Brown in California and Andrew Cuomo in New York have gotten the message. The days of halcyon are over. Frugality is in fashion.
Although the nation was pulled out of the abyss of 2008 and 2009, Obama’s five-year record since then, with its massive deficits, skyrocketing debt, anemic growth and diminished labor force participation, has been nothing to write home about.
Add to that the NSA, IRS, and VA scandals, and you’re looking at the kinds of records that candidates tend to run away from rather than run away from.
While African Americans and Asians are among the Democrats’ most devoted bloc, in California, Asians rose up in furious protest to oppose a proposed bill to restore affirmative action in state schools. Asians are currently among the main victims of reverse discrimination.
Mrs. Clinton says she has “evolved” on the issue of same-sex marriage.
Have conservative black pastors and preachers in America’s most churched community also evolved? How comfortable are black Christians in a party that had half its convention delegates booed when it suggested mentioning God on its platform in 2012?
NO. The 2016 presidency is not out of reach for the GOP.
It is simply tough to say who among those approaching the starting gate will win the required 270 electoral votes.
