Swing state research by the CBS News triumvirate, the New York Times and Quinnipiac have been polling Viagra for liberals all year long. Their recent edition in the case of Florida, Ohio and Virginia is no exception. According to the final tally, Obama leads by five in Ohio, one in Florida and two in Virginia. If this happens, the election will be over and the president will easily be able to run for re-election. But all three outcomes have earnest, if not fatal, flaws. Ed Morrissey made it excellent job I’m going through the list, but I thought I’d repeat a few:
(1) Partisan samples – All three polls predict lower Republican turnout than in 2008, thus expecting that Obama will be able to enjoy a very vast turnout advantage in these states. Ed boils it down to a basic graph – the first set of data shows today’s Q-poll sample, the next shows actual turnout in 2008, and the last shows turnout in 2010. The split is D/R/I:
Florida: 37/30/29 (D+7) 37/34/29 (D+3) 36/36/29 (D+0)
A: 37/29/30 (D+8) 39/31/30 (D+8) 36/37/28 (R+1)
VA: 35/27/35 (D+8) 39.33.27 (D+6) 33.37.30 (Y+4 – 2009)
So compared to 2008, which saw a Democratic wave, Obama will more than double his partisan advantage in Florida, maintain it in Ohio (with a lower Republican vote), and expand it in Virginia. This poll suggests Republican turnout will be there lose six points in Virginia compared to 2008. Does anyone believe this will be the case in six days? I can’t imagine that the pollsters who came up with these results did it at all. Why? Because their own polling also reveals two major trends that strongly favor Romney. See below.
(2) Independent – Mitt Romney wins independent elections in all three battleground states:
Florida: Romney +5, 2008: Obama +7 (Obama won state 3)
OH: Romney +6, 2008: Obama +8 (Obama won the state 4.5)
VA: Romney +21, 2008: Obama +1 (Obama won state 6)
This is data from again these surveys. Romney stands to benefit from a 12-point lead against the Indians in Florida, a 14-point lead in Ohio and a 20-point (!) lead in Virginia. But Obama “leads” in all three states. It must be due to the enormous, overwhelming and unprecedented enthusiasm of the Democrats, right? Evil.
(3) Enthusiasm – CBS/NYT/Q polls also reveal emerging GOP intensity advantage across the board:
In this chart, the pollster compares the current difference in partisan enthusiasm with numbers measured a month ago – before the debates. Republicans had advantages in all three states in September, but their advantage has widened over the past month. GOP voters’ excitement about voting exceeds Democratic enthusiasm by 16 points in Florida, 14 points in Ohio and 7 points in Virginia. In each case, the GOP stats are in the low 50s or low 60s; Democrats’ numbers are weakening in the 1940s. To summarize: CBS/NYT/Q-poll polls make us believe that Barack Obama has a chance to win these states, even though his opponent soundly defeated him with independent candidates and the Republicans easily won a close battle. Good luck. I leave you with a few additional notes from other current and emerging battlefield states:
New Hampshire – Mitt Romney has now been endorsed by the state’s two largest newspapers, The Union leader, and Nashua Telegraph – who supported Obama four years ago.
Iowa – Republicans are starting I really believe in the Hawkeye State.
Michigan – Romney’s SuperPAC has hit the state’s airwaves, and Obama’s campaign has already begun following the example. If you’re hoping for a home result, Obama’s team is now spending time on the air in Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Michigan. But not because Romney has a chance in any of them, they insist. No, sir. They just like to waste donors’ money or something. I’m sure their latest move has nothing to do with the recent one Detroit news vote showing Romney three points ahead of Obama in Michigan, leading the economy for the first time and having an advantage over independent candidates. Nothing to see here…
UPDATE – As if on cue, recent Roanoke College Poll Virginia shows that Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five points, 49/44. He crushes the incumbent among independents (59/33), wins on the economy (53/41) and dismantles Obama with delayed decision-makers (53/35). The survey sample is D+4, which may even be a little generous.
