You already know all the supposed reasons conservatives should feel oppressed before Tuesday: the Obama campaign’s overblown turnout machine, Democratic-heavy state polls in places like Ohio, Nate Silver’s electoral model, and the overwhelming conventional wisdom conveyed in the media – all of which suggests the president is limping across the finish line on Tuesday and securing another four years. I’ve written before about why I think the race will ultimately depend on turnout and enthusiasm, both of which could swing either way within three days. But while liberals are trying to sow seeds of despair – perhaps in an act of Freudian projection – ahead of the election, many conservatives haven’t gotten the memo. As we prepare for the final 72-hour competition in this key competition, here are some reasons for optimism:
(1) The Unparalleled Political Encyclopedia of Humanity Michael Barone believes Mitt Romney will win. Like Karl Rove – who, incidentally, also chose Obama as the winner in 2008 – Barone believes Romney is at least capable of shocking the world decisive victory: :
Rules tend to dominate American elections. This is bad news for Barack Obama. It’s true that Americans want to think well of their presidents, and many believe it would be bad if Americans were seen as rejecting the first black president. But it is also true that most voters oppose Obama’s main policies and find the very sluggish economic recovery unsatisfactory – Friday’s jobs report showed a rise in unemployment. Additionally, national and state polls show that independent voters who do not identify as Democrats or Republicans favor Romney. This might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. Yet almost every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about the vote – and their candidate – than they were in 2008, while Democrats are less so. This was evident in early or mail-in voting, where Democrats surpassed their 2008 numbers in the target states of Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada…Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds good for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Basics.
Barone even drags Pennsylvania into Romney’s column, which he admits is at risk. I still think it’s a bit far-fetched, but considering demography and trends in the country, who knows?
(2) Jay Cost, an extremely astute polling and election data analyst, believes that Romney “will probably winHere’s why:
I think Mitt Romney will most likely win next Tuesday. For two reasons: (1) Romney leads among voters in confidence in the economy’s recovery. (2) Romney leads among independents. Again, this is a different approach than what pollsters offer. They take the data at face value, run simulations on it, and generate probability estimates. That’s not what this is about and it shouldn’t be interpreted that way. I’m no longer willing to take polls at face value. I’m more interested in relating the polls to the history and long-term structure of American politics, and when I do that, I see Romney winning.
(3) The Washington Post Office updated his Congress projectionsnow calling on House Republicans to roughly maintain their current majority advantage in the next Congress — if not, expand it. Ed Morrissey creates good point: If an evenly divided electorate (in terms of party identification) was needed to build the 2010 red wave that moved Republicans back to a immense majority in the House, how could they maintain or expand their advantage if the electorate in Will 2012 be much more democratic, as many pollsters assume?
(4) WaPo Also reports that their national polls indicate that at least 13 percent of Obama’s 2008 voters will support Romney this year. Ace works quick and soiled back of the envelope calculations:
So ultimately between Obama and Romney 13 to 16%. Obama won relatively substantial – more than any Democratic president in recent memory – but not enough to afford this level of defection. 70 million voted for Obama in 2008; 60 million voted for McCain. 13% of 70 million is 9.1 million. Subtract that from 70 million and add it to 60 million and you get…
Romney is leading by millions of votes, that’s the point. Maybe Posts the defection rate is overstated, and turnout is likely to decline this year – but there are also Romney voters who stayed home last time. WaPo Romney also does well with independents, and yet they are defining the national race just 49/48 for Mitt in general. More exemplary fun. If their top number is approximately correct, their internals are stacked and vice versa. We’ll see again.
(5) Yesterday I reported that a top source for Jim Geraghty (codename: “Middle Cheese”) claims that internal records show that Romney looks solid in Florida, Virginia and Colorado. But another expert I know seemed skittish about all three states. Power this fresh survey from Florida confirms Middle Cheese’s predictions?
Mitt Romney maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll. likely voters who favor Republicans by six percentage points. Romney’s strengths: independent voters and greater support for Democrats over Republicans who support Obama– according to a study conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Romney’s popularity is fueled by powerful support in rural North Florida, a conservative stronghold where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.
The poll also shows Romney leading both among early voters and Floridians who will vote on Tuesday. Game over in the Sunshine State?
(6) Finally, we keep hearing the “turnout and enthusiasm” mantra in the comments. (Guilty as charged.) A fresh Marist/NBC poll shows Obama moving up six points in Ohio… Sample D+9. This predicts that the Democratic electorate in Ohio will be much larger this year than in 2008, and that the Republican vote will be weaker than in 2008. Several factors contradict this view: common sense, early voting ratesand anecdotal evidence, e.g epic rally Romney held a meeting last night in the suburbs of Cincinnati:
Local authorities estimated the number of people at approx 30,000 people. President drew 2,800 yesterday in Ohio. Here’s the full video of Ryan and Romney’s speeches (to see what the tension was like, skip to 8:50 when Ryan introduces the man at the top of the ticket):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTg639AU_r8
Yes, maybe the Ohio electorate really Is secretly D+9 this year. Or maybe it’s D+2, 1, or zero. One last fact: historically, Republican presidential candidates run forward their national percentage in Ohio. That was the case in 2008, when Obama won by seven overall and 4.5 in Buckeyeland. It’s all there NO to say that Romney is an asset in every way. There are so many moving parts and conflicting data points that I’m not bold enough to make any predictions on this one. Hell, re-read the opening sentences of this post. Having said that, I think the derisive liberal (public) consensus that Obama is doing just fine is wrong and could be proven spectacularly wrong in a matter of days.