I just talked on the phone Mike Duncanchairman of the Republican National Committee, who had some fascinating things to say about their plan to get off the ballot in November.
Duncan expressed great confidence in the “micro-targeting” technology that gave the Republican Party victories in 2000, 2002 and 2004. I thought he would shudder when I asked whether the 2006 defeat meant the end of this system’s dominance, but he told me that it did It really worked better two years ago than in 2004!
He asserted that microtargeting only works on the margins and will therefore only win a close race – which apparently didn’t happen in 2006 – but he actually helped GOP candidates outperform in “overall” polls this year. He further claimed that improving the program was the main reason many Republicans like the Congresswoman were “threatened.” Heather Wilson (R-NM), retained their seats.
So, at least in the eyes of the RNC, Republican microtargeting technology has shown steady growth since 2000 and continues to outpace Democratic targeting efforts. Duncan also said he expected Democrats to outspend him, but a better ground game would give McCain a ticket to victory. The GOP effort will be “more effective,” he assured me, even though the other side has more “paid volunteers.” (This is consistent with what I learned from my previous interview with McCain’s political director, Mike DuHame).
I also asked Duncan whether the GOP would keep its money in classic battlegrounds or try to “expand the map” by targeting states like Minnesota and New Jersey – where McCain is surprisingly competitive. He didn’t give me any details, but said “we’ll see the change on the map.” My guess is that the RNC will monitor these states and only spend money there if they hit a few points or so a week before Election Day. This, of course, also assumes that they will be able to fully fund classic battleground states like Ohio and Michigan.
Perhaps the most fascinating thing he revealed is that the GOP already has 50 individual plans drawn up to focus on everyone a country that is becoming competitive…
Adam Brickley at Townhall contributed to this post.
