COLUMBUS – From the Great Depression to today’s recession, Ohio’s diversified economy has weathered economic declines marginally better than its Rust Belt neighbors.
Now it’s ground zero for Democrats to prove they are truly connected to the needs of Main Street.
President Obama came here on June 18 to prove just that, kicking off the “Summer of Economic Recovery” commemorating the $10,000 stimulus bill. It’s strenuous to say what he proved by spending 58 minutes in the state – 12 of them were talking, 5 were shaking hands, and the rest were going back and forth from the airport.
Taking into account the $100,000 per hour cost of Air Force One and adding the costs of military planes carrying Secret Service limousines and vehicles, the event cost taxpayers between $500,000 and $1 million. It also cost construction workers at a neighboring plant an entire day’s wages – all for a 720-second speech about economic recovery.
A year ago, Ohio showed its displeasure by handing Obama his first drop in job approval ratings. The country caught up with the Buckeye State last week, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that found 62 percent of adults believe America is on the wrong track; it was also the first time that more people disapproved than approved of Obama’s performance.
A statewide tour reveals a deeply dissatisfied electorate, even among Democrats like Cheryl Guy, 56, of Canton. “Simply put, this country is going in the wrong direction and they have no idea who we are or how we feel here,” he says of Team Obama.
Guy, a registered nurse, says voters need to put the brakes on starting with the November midterm elections. She initially supported freshman U.S. Rep. Ryan Boccieri, D-Alliance, who represents part of northeast Ohio, but “after his horrific vote for the health care (bill), he lost my support.”
With enthusiasm for Obama and his party surging among centrist independent voters as well as rank-and-file Democrats, Ohio’s House races are crucial to control of Congress.
“Right now, Democrats have a 10-8 advantage over Republicans in terms of who we send to the House of Representatives,” explains University of Miami political science professor Chris Kelly. “But that will probably change after the 2010 election… It might as well be 10-8 in favor of the Republicans.”
Here’s a breakdown of the congressional seats held by Ohio Democrats that are in play:
District 1 – A rematch from 2008, when Steve Driehaus, taking advantage of the vast turnout provoked by Obama, defeated former member of parliament Steve Chabot by 2 points. However, Driehaus overtook Obama by 4 percent, while Chabot overtook the GOP presidential ticket by 5 percent.
CONCRETE: Chabot will return to his elderly place. Driehaus’s vote on health care was livid, but it particularly hurt among the district’s pro-life groups that supported him in 2008.
Distant. 15 – Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy also gained popularity thanks to historic voter turnout in 2008, yet won by less than 1 percent; she underperformed Obama by 8 percent, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm. Opponent Steve Stivers may be the most impressive GOP candidate in the country; was born and raised in Ohio, served in the state Senate from 2003 to 2008, and is a lieutenant colonel in the Ohio National Guard.
SPECIFIC: Nobody likes Mary Jo Kilroy. Stivers wins.
Distant. 16 – John Boccieri won the northeast Ohio seat in 2008 after Republicans had held it for nearly 60 years. Now businessman Jim Renacci is poised to defeat him after the incumbent described himself as a credible vote for Democratic leadership in the House. Boccieri supported stimulus bills, trade restrictions and health care; his sporadic support for health care resonated most with voters.
CONCRETE: Boccieri was a Boy Scout when he ran in 2008, but now he has the voting record; Renacci has some experience, but his polls look good in a district that tends to be Republican. This could be an incentive for the GOP.
Distant. 13 – Rep. Betty Sutton won the seat in 2006 when fellow Democrat Sherrod Brown decided to run for U.S. Senate, and she took the seat without any major problems. This time, her opponent, businessman Tom Ganley, is ready to exploit voters’ frustration with Washington. Recent polls show the race will be close, with Ganley leading by 3 points.
CONCRETE: This is the Democratic ticket, but Sutton is a lousy incumbent; its fundraising was penniless, even after Ganley entered the race. The makeup of the district is tough, but Ganley’s willingness to spend is forcing Democrats to defend themselves in the Cleveland media market.
Distant. 18 – Rep. Zack Space won in 2006 against a frail opponent in a bad year for Republicans. His vote for restraint of trade and commerce was most devastating to this district; he followed this by supporting health care “reform.” Republicans were pleased when state Sen. Bob Gibbs spoke in the primary, but his general election campaign moved slowly.
CONCRETE: Gibbs needs to raise a lot more money to benefit Republicans.
