This is part of a series that Jillian Bandes, Townhall.com’s national political reporter, is doing on Democrats vulnerable in the election called “Open Season.”
When you look at the numbers in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District, things are starting to look pretty bad for incumbent Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy.
Republican Steve Stivers challenged Kilroy in the 2008 season in a hard-fought campaign that was one of the hottest races of the season. That’s when Bruce Springsteen performed a free concert on behalf of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign to facilitate register Democratic voters at Ohio State University. Ohio State is a key area in the 15th district, and the gig paid off: About 18,000 students voted for Obama.
These 18,000 students also checked the box of other Democrats on their ballot, and one of them was Mary Jo Kilroy. But even all of those votes resulted in Steve Stivers losing by just 2,000 votes overall.
“I was very impressed on campus,” Stivers said of his 2008 campaign. “Two years ago, Obama brought a huge turnout from the state of Ohio. I don’t think you can argue that too many of them voted for Kilroy.
Now the Stivers campaign has its entire plan around the Buckeyes. He also has great material to build his plan on – Kilroy’s job-killing program, which is the number one priority for Ohio State students. Danelle Gagliardi, a 19-year-old sophomore, has been working with the Stivers campaign from the beginning.
“People were waiting for hope and change after Obama was elected, and now there are no results,” Gagliardi said. “People graduate and don’t get a job, and you wonder what’s going on. People are lighting up again.”
Stephen Cheek, senior, served in the military and then went on to major in politics and international relations.
“Many students went to the polls [in 2008] they wanted to pursue the agenda that Obama had promised at the time and they thought Kilroy would do it too,” Cheek said. “I think this election will be completely different. Students are smart.”
Republicans outspent the district 2-to-1 last cycle, with Kilroy losing a frigid $2.1 million in the race to Stivers’ $941,000. With six months left in the race, Stivers has raised $1.1 million with $830,000 on hand, while Kilroy has raised $1.5 million and has $847 on hand. This is an encouraging start to a race that will once again be one of the most watched this season.
Another factor is the employment situation in northern Ohio, which has a niche medical device industry. Kilroy’s “yes” vote on health care includes a massive fresh medical device tax that promises to send even more jobs out of state. She also voted “yes” on financial reform, emissions cuts and trade, and any other key issue that might not appeal to middle-of-the-road voters in this troubled state. But no polls have been taken on the race since the May 4 primary, and even Stivers admits it will be a close race. He has knocked on 20,000 doors since the beginning of his campaign and takes nothing for granted.
“It really is one of the swingiest neighborhoods in the country,” Stivers said. “But I’m pretty sure… he has a real image problem.”
