Residents of Ohio’s Ninth District are not unhappy with their Democratic representative, Marcy Kaptur. There are 10% more Democratic voters than Republicans in the district, and Kaptur has served 14 consecutive terms. However, this election cycle is different and Republican challenger Rich Iott thinks he has a fighting chance.
“The Rich Iott campaign began to instill in people who would otherwise support Marcy — but don’t like what they saw from her or in Washington — the belief that she can be defeated,” said Fritz Wenzel , chief adviser to the Iott campaign. “The intensity on the Republican side is much greater than on the Democratic side.”
In other words, even Iott knows it’s a long shot, but given the recent political situation, he feels good. Kaptur’s last-minute failure to vote on Obamacare added an element of vulnerability to her candidacy; she was a member of the Stupak voting bloc, and the staunchly pro-life population of northern Ohio didn’t like it. Then there is anti-democratic and anti-Washington sentiment across the country. Hood has been in this position forever, and Iott is a political novice.
Wenzel points to two other indicators that may indicate some weakness in Kaptur’s re-election chances: her relatively destitute primary performance and the number of people who clearly say they want her re-elected. Kaptur won 80% of the Democratic primary in her district against another unnamed Democratic candidate. This is quite low for an incumbent president who won 74% of the total vote last year. Second, polls show that over 50% of Ohio voters have a favorable view of Kaptur, but far fewer actually think she deserves re-election.
Equally critical is the nature of Kaptur’s opposition. No Republican has mounted a major campaign against her in more than 20 years, and Iott has already poured more than $300,000 of his own money into his campaign. Ninth district – part of the so-called “Rust Belt” – suffers because it never recovered from the technology meltdown in the early 2000s and then suffered again from the housing market crash in 2008. Kaptur has offered voters nothing different in her term, and it’s possible that they will be ready for change.
But Kaptur played her cards well. With the retirement of Wisconsin’s David Obey, he has the opportunity to chair a subcommittee on the Agriculture, Defense and Transportation Committee. Two other members of that committee also left room for Kaptur to advance – Democrat Alan Mollohan of West Virginia lost the primary and Democrat John Murtha died. Kaptur is also a member of the Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee, serving a sturdy industry in her district.
The congresswoman also delivered a stunning promotional appearance at the Goldman Sachs hearings, a major focus of this year’s election cycle. At the height of the controversy, Kaptur appeared at the Justice Department with a letter signed by 62 members of Congress, demanding an explanation for investigations into major financial institutions and insisting that the perpetrators be sent to prison. She may have lowered her authority a few notches when she mistook Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke for Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson during a congressional hearing, but she still came out delighted.
She really could be vulnerable if voters come to terms with the fact that Kaptur’s Democratic policies haven’t improved their lives during her many terms and that Republican Rich Iott can offer an attractive alternative. Iott is the former CEO of Food Town, a grocery chain in the Northwest United States, and has been part of numerous other startups in the Toledo area. He is also a military reservist. Wenzel said Iott’s main focus during the campaign and during his potential term will be jobs and the economy.
“Voters are really unhappy with the direction the country is going,” he said. “Nothing happening in Washington right now makes them optimistic that Congress will make things better.”
