ERIE – If you wanted to find a place on a map of the United States that marked the heart of the Rust Belt, this would be it. Its production operations have seen better days.
Voters here and in the Twin Cities from eastern Pennsylvania to Indiana will likely decide which political party controls Congress.
These are the Reagan Democrats whom President Clinton won back to some extent in 1992 and whom President Bush disgusted by 2008.
These voters are once again on edge as the nation heads into the 2010 midterm elections.
In a year of absenteeism, the Obama administration’s lack of focus on jobs and the economy – and too much emphasis on health care – turned established Democratic-leaning voters against anything remotely associated with Washington.
Democrats have a problem with the Rust Belt. Here are some three-state congressional races to watch:
Bye. District 3 – Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper won the seat in 2008 because it was a Democratic year, Erie was in a bad economy and the incumbent Republican Party was feeble. This is a more challenging year and the DCCC will be more spread out; supported the health care bill and much will depend on how this vote will be perceived in five months.
Bye. District 10 – Rep. Chris Carney was very fortunate when he faced scandal-plagued Republican opponents in 2006 and 2008. On the other hand, this is just a brutal district for Democrats. Thanks to Carney’s vote on health care, it won’t be as basic for him as it was in the last two elections. Maybe he’ll be lucky again.
Bye. District 11 – Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta, a Republican, carried the result last cycle in a complex year for his party. If he can raise more money and broaden his appeal beyond immigration, the GOP will have a great chance this year against incumbent Rep. Paul Kanjorski. (Democrats would probably prefer Kanjorski retire so they can start over with someone untainted by Washington).
Bye. District 17 – Rep. Tim Holden knows he faces his toughest fight since the redistricting race against then-Rep. Paul Gekas, a Republican, in 2002. This GOP district could become anti-incumbent this year, even for someone like Holden, who is seen as an independent.
Ohio District 16 – Rep. John Boccieri had a very moderate voting record and is in good standing as an Air Force reservist who deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. As a sturdy activist and very up-and-coming among Democrats, his move from “no” to “yes” on health care has made things less certain — and more complicated for district voters.
Ohio District 18 – In 2006, Democrat Zach Space won the seat of Republican Bob Ney, who became involved in the Abramoff scandal and ultimately went to prison. Now that the political environment has changed, Space will struggle to stay afloat, made worse by its health care debacle. Republican John McCain won this district in the 2008 presidential election by 8 points; it’s demanding to imagine he won’t return to the Republicans.
Indiana District 2 – As in all districts, the main topic here will be jobs; local unemployment remains higher than the national average. Rep. Joe Donnelly, D, hasn’t faced any earnest challenge, but state Rep. Jackie Walorski will be formidable. It has a sturdy grassroots army; if he raises the money, this race will be fascinatingly close.
Indiana District 8 – This is a district known as the “Bloody Eight” due to its very competitive elections over the years. And it’s going to be demanding for Democrats to keep it because it’s an open seat in a bad year.
Indiana District 9 – Southeastern Indiana, including the university town of Bloomington, is a culturally conservative, economically populist district, with manifestations of liberalism. Obama, Kerry and Gore all lost here. The key for Rep. Baron Hill is to perform well on the college field while not getting crushed elsewhere.