Pessimism is no more attractive in a party leader than in a high school cheerleader. In the case of Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele, it is also unjustified. Despite his prediction on Fox News that GOP control of Congress won’t happen “this year,” the Republican Party has a very, very good chance of taking control of both houses of Congress in 2010.
We are in the middle of a political tsunami. The estimate that the water will only rise 30, 200 or 300 meters is completely speculative. Generally speaking, once these things start, they will go further than anyone expected. Only rarely do they succeed.
And Obama’s determination to march forward with his full-blown socialist agenda, including imposing a health care system that most don’t want, can only strengthen the winds and the coming tide. Democrats’ 60-vote majority in the Senate reinforces such arrogance and contempt for the democratic process that it’s basic to see how it will create an equal and opposite reaction in the 2010 elections.
The 2010 tsunami is qualitatively different from other massacres of officials that occurred in 1994, 1974 or 1964. In those years, one side exceeded its limits and the other took advantage of the defenselessness of its rival. These were classic examples of voters correcting the excessive liberalism, conservatism or dishonesty of the ruling regime.
But 2010 is different. It’s not just that Obama is too liberal or that Democrats have given us unemployment that won’t end, a deficit that won’t go away, a newfound vulnerability to terrorism after seven safe and sound years, and a health care system that most people hate.
2010 will be a special year because voters have debunked the myth of the moderate Democrat. There is no such animal anymore. No moderate or conservative voter can rely on the assumption that his congressman or senator will steadfastly defend his values ​​in the face of partisan pressure. The breakthrough of 2010 will be due as much to this intellectual insight as to any other cause, and that will make it even more powerful.
In the House, party changes have already given Republicans one seat, and there will likely be more. Among the open seats, Republicans are likely to lose two and Democrats six, reducing their margin to 35.
Then the 28 Democrats from districts won by John McCain may lose. Seventeen people are very vulnerable and 11 others are slightly less vulnerable. But even these 11 long-serving incumbents may discover that their voters cannot be bought by money or swayed to vote for what they are told is a “conservative” Democrat.
Eight Democrats – six freshmen – come from districts where McCain narrowly lost and they narrowly won. And 11 others – including three first-year students – are only slightly less vulnerable.
Republicans need to defeat 35 of 47 Democrats to take control. This is not a task completely out of reach.
In the Senate, Republicans will easily hold all open seats except Ohio, Missouri and New Hampshire. Since Missouri chose McCain, it’s reasonable to assume that Roy Blunt will end up in the Senate, and since Ohio is the quintessential swing state, it’s demanding to imagine how it won’t swing to the GOP as well. In New Hampshire, Republican Kelly Ayotte has the advantage, although the state is too Democratic to consider her safe and sound.
Democrats expect to lose at least five seats: Delaware, Arkansas, Nevada, North Dakota and Colorado. But in the event of a tsunami, Republicans will also likely choose Illinois and Pennsylvania (with or without Arlen Specter’s retirement or primary defeat). Four left.
Despite the appeals of Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and his state’s liberalism, Chris Dodd’s seat cannot be considered safe and sound in this type of year. Barbara Boxer’s victory over Carly Fiorina cannot be taken for granted either.
For the remaining two seats, Republicans need mighty candidates in Indiana, Washington state, Oregon and Wisconsin, and against Kirsten Gillibrand in New York.
A mighty candidate can be born or made. Even a relatively tender newcomer can muster strength from a tsunami heading toward Washington. A compelling GOP landslide makes all of these seats up for grabs.
