Ohio is experiencing a political identity crisis. Is it a “blue state,” as evidenced by Democratic statewide victories in 2006 and 2008, or a “red state” that is simply fed up with the behavior of its former Republican elected officials?
“Well, it’s more like an orange state,” said Bert Rockman, a political scientist at Purdue University.
Ohio, Rockman explains, is mostly up for grabs: “Through gerrymandering – and yes, both sides are doing it – Republicans for a time controlled the state legislature and therefore control of the state’s congressional delegation.”
Some have changed that, prompted by misfortunes under Republican Gov. Bob Taft and the tough economic climate in which Ohio, like other industrial Midwestern states, has suffered.
Democrats do well in cities; Republicans are doing well in compact towns and rural parts of the state. The suburbs are up for grabs; they lean more Republican around Cincinnati and more Democratic around Columbus.
Look to Columbus to see how the state will evolve: it is a formerly middle-class Republican city, now mostly Democratic; its typically affluent suburbs are still mostly Republican, but have recently trended toward Democrats.
“Overall,” Rockman says, “despite much of the malice toward Reagan Democrats, Democrats have consistently maintained their working-class base” in the state.
This week, former Ohio Republican congressman John Kasich announced he will succeed Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland next year. The ebb and flow of this race will in many ways reflect the mood of the country and whether the 2008 Democratic revolution has legs or not.
Strickland’s counterpart in Pennsylvania, Gov. Ed Rendell, is a great admirer of Kasich (a Pittsburgh native) and calls him one of his favorite Republicans. Still, he argues, predictably, that Strickland deserves re-election.
“Ted has done a fantastic job in Ohio,” Rendell said, explaining that the governor’s role is to create an environment for development, growth and job retention — three points he said Strickland has achieved.
Strickland is more celebrated throughout the state. He’s from southern Ohio and Democrats say he’s quite conservative — though undoubtedly less conservative than Kasich.
Rockman predicts this will be a real horse race: “A lot may depend on whether voters think well of the current presidential administration… and also what they think of Strickland, who still appears to be doing well.
“Kasich will be a formidable opponent. … (He) is an adept compromiser, on some issues across party lines. If he fails, it won’t be for lack of effort.
Democratic strategist John Lapp of Ralston-Lapp sees it differently. “Look, you have a Republican comeback field; Kasich can easily be recognized as a throwback to (Newt) Gingrich.”
He believes Ohio Democrats have a better bench now and in the future, making Ohio a reliably blue state perhaps for generations.
The country is at a particular moment in which people feel more comfortable with a protective — and inevitably larger — government than with the smaller one that ensures Democrats’ longevity.
But with the love of gigantic government comes the fact that someone has to pay for it: taxpayers.
So what strengths do Strickland and Kasich bring to their game?
Strickland, an ordained minister, is not ideological; he won classic Democratic districts in northeastern Ohio and gigantic cities, but he also performed well in Ohio’s Appalachian region. In 2006, his appeal seemed broad, but that may have been due in part to the scandals unfolding in the Taft administration.
On the other hand, Kasich has a double appeal: he is the son of working-class parents, very strict on fiscal issues and quite conventionally Republican in rhetoric. Extremely cheerful, he has real empathy for working people and the uncertainty plaguing industrial workers.
Republican Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, told the Trib that Kasich’s candidacy will immediately spark a debate about how Ohio is losing people, industry and raising taxes, and how Ohioans must reverse that process.
“John Kasich was a reformer long before it was popular,” Boehner said. “He understands what needs to be done to make real change in Ohio.”
How this will play out is anyone’s guess, Rockman says: “It will largely depend on who voters blame for the bad economic news in the state.
“… I think Strickland will probably have the advantage at this point, but we are still a long way from the election.”
