Winning Ohio was once crucial to winning the presidential election. This year, not so much.
Ohio used to be a key change in presidential elections for decades – which means lots of political advertising and a campaign halt – but things reversed in 2016, he said Kyle Kondik, editor-in-chief of the Sabato Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Policy Center.
“In 2016, Donald Trump made a huge difference in education that changed many states,” he said. “States like Ohio and Iowa have gone from purple states to red states.”
In 2016, 51% of Ohioans voted for former President Trump, who won the election despite losing a majority of the vote. Fifty-three percent of Ohioans voted for Trump in 2020, but President Joe Biden won the election.
“I think historically we’ll look at 2016 as an vital politically adjusting election in a lot of different places, but particularly in Ohio because that’s when the state went from a state that very much reflected the nation to one that was no longer a reflection of the nation,” he said Kondik, who wrote “The Bellwether: Why Ohio Elects President.” His book was published in June 2016.
Trump is expected to win Ohio, which has 17 electoral votes, for the third time in a row in 2024 – a recent Washington Post poll showed this. led by six points. Neither Harris nor Trump has made any recent campaign stops in Ohio. Trump was last in Ohio before the state’s March primary to drum up support for U.S. Senate candidate Bernie Moreno, who ultimately secured the Republican nomination and will face Ohio U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown in a key race for control of this chamber.
“This is not a state that seems particularly competitive (in this presidential election).” – said Kondyk.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are key battleground states in the election of Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump.
Ohio’s history as a swing state
Until 2020, Ohio had voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1964. No Republican had won no-win presidential election in Ohio. Former President Barack Obama was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Ohio in 2012.
“Trump has proven particularly popular among working-class whites in Northeast Ohio, Cleveland, the Akron area, and also in Appalachia,” he said Paul Beck, professor emeritus and professor of political science at Ohio State University.
Republican Party candidates everywhere were very successful in Ohio.
“They had more candidates who have recognition and visibility across the state,” Beck said. “Democrats had a hard time finding candidates with this visibility who could compete with them on an equal or better level in the elections.”
It’s possible that Ohio will become a swing state again in the future, but things will have to change.
“It is always possible that the demographic patterns we have seen recently will change in a way that perhaps increases the state’s competitiveness,” he added. – said Kondyk. “I really think it would require Democrats reconciling with white working class voters, which has been a struggle for them in this group, and they have been losing ground in this group for a long time. “I also think Democrats just need to get a lot more out of suburban counties than they do.”
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