WASHINGTON — Voters in this year’s election will mark the first time they will cast ballots for president since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to abortion and made reproductive rights a key issue for many voters.
Over the past few months, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump have repeatedly spoken out about reproductive rights and abortion access.
Trump’s position has evolved over the course of his bid for the White House. He now says he wouldn’t sign legislation implementing nationwide abortion restrictions and wants regulation left to the states.
Harris has consistently said that a nationwide access law would leave the choice up to women, not politicians.
“I pledge that when Congress passes legislation restoring Roe v. Wade protections, as president of the United States, I will proudly sign it into law,” Harris said during September presidential debate.
During the same debate, Trump patted himself on the back for nominating three Supreme Court justices who later joined his conservative colleagues in ruling that the Constitution does not provide a right to privacy, which two previous Supreme Court decisions have found isolates women’s choices regarding abortion .
“I did something that no one thought was possible,” Trump said of nominating the three judges. “The states are voting now. What he says is an absolute lie. And when it comes to the abortion ban, no, I am not in favor of the abortion ban. But it doesn’t matter because this issue has now been taken over by the states.”
Harris just said Trump would sign a nationwide abortion ban if elected, and cited Project 2025, a second Trump administration plan published by the conservative Heritage Foundation. Trump and his campaign have repeatedly tried to distance themselves from the document and many of the proposals it contains.
Many politicians misinterpreted the Supreme Court’s ruling two years ago as sending abortion regulations back to the states. The conservative justices wrote that the end of Roe v. Wade meant that “the power to regulate abortion returns to the people and their elected representatives.”
This, of course, applies to Congress and the president.
Trump’s position is varied
Trump’s position on abortion has not always been linear and consistent. Earlier this year, he told Republicans they should avoid discussing the issue to win the election, while also reaching out to organizations that see it as one way to end abortion altogether.
In April, Trump ran afoul of several anti-abortion organizations and conservative Republicans announced he did not want Congress to act on a nationwide law.
Trump has previously said he would support a 16-week nationwide ban. In his April statement, he reiterated his support for exceptions to state abortion bans in cases of rape, incest or the life of the pregnant patient.
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser issued a statement following Trump’s April announcement that she was “deeply disappointed.”
“Saying that the issue has returned to the states hands the national debate back to Democrats, who are working tirelessly to pass legislation requiring abortion for all nine months of pregnancy,” Dannenfelser wrote. “If they are successful, they will eliminate states’ rights.”
About a month later, in May, Trump, Dannenfelser, Family Research Council Chairman Tony Perkins and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina had a “great meeting,” according to statement released later.
Then, this summer, Trump further muddied his position on abortion when he did so he was talking to some organization in June, which describes abortion as “the greatest atrocity facing” the United States that must be “completely eradicated.”
“These will be your years because you will come back like no other group,” Trump said during the Danbury Institute’s inaugural Life & Liberty Forum. “I know what’s going on. I know where you come from and where you’re going. And I will be with you, shoulder to shoulder.”
And most recently, Trump published on social media during the vice presidential debate in early October that he would veto any nationwide restrictions on abortion.
Trump wrote in all caps that he “will not support a federal abortion ban under any circumstances, and in fact will veto it because he decides based on the will of his voters (the will of the people!).”
Trump added that he does not support access to abortion in the seventh, eighth or ninth months of pregnancy, nor does he support infanticide, which is already illegal.
In 2021, approximately 93% of abortions occurred within the first 13 weeks of pregnancy, according to data. data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed by the Pew Research Center.
The data shows that another 6% of abortions occurred between 14 and 20 weeks of pregnancy, and the remaining 1% occurred after 21 weeks of pregnancy.
“Nearly half of women who had abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy did not suspect they were pregnant until later in their pregnancy, and other barriers to care included lack of information about where to access abortion services, difficulties with transportation, lack of insurance and inability to pay for the proceedings” – according to analysis from KFF Zdrowie.
Harris’ position
Harris has repeatedly criticized Trump for celebrating the Supreme Court’s decision ending Roe v. Wade, and during the presidential debate he said that state restrictions have caused untold harm to women.
“Trump’s abortion ban makes no exception even for rape and incest,” Harris said. “Understand what this means – a person who has survived a crime, a violation of his or her body, has no right to decide what will happen to his or her body next. This is immoral.
“And you don’t have to abandon your faith or deeply held beliefs to agree with the government, and Donald Trump certainly shouldn’t tell a woman what to do with her body.”
Harris called on Democrats to eliminate the Senate’s legislative filibuster to make it easier to pass legislation that would restore nationwide protections against abortion.
Under this Senate rule, at least 60 lawmakers vote on a bill before the bill can be voted on by a uncomplicated majority. It is different with the so-called talking filibuster, when one senator or group of like-minded lawmakers speaks on the floor for hours to delay a vote.
Democrats would need to maintain their majority in the Senate against long odds to actually implement an exception to the legislative filibuster and pass a bill restoring Roe v. Wade. Democrats would also need to regain control of the House of Representatives.
A divided Congress or a few Democrats opposed to a change of government in the Senate would hamper Harris’ efforts to sign nationwide abortion legislation.
Democrats tried to pass a bill through the Senate, which would provide nationwide abortion protections if control of the government were unified in 2022, but was blocked by the filibuster.
Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Arizona Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema later introduced a bipartisan bill this would have had a similar result, but was not scheduled for a majority vote.
The two-year-old legislation likely won’t be passed again if Democrats gain the upper hand in November’s elections, unless they make an exception to the Senate filibuster.
Voters from a swing state
Harris and Trump’s positions on abortion access will likely play a role in determining which candidate wins the Electoral College in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Democrats are sanguine about this questions about access to abortion in 10 states will boost Harris’ chances through increased voter turnout and higher spending by reproductive rights organizations.
While many referendums are held in solidly blue or red states, proposals in Arizona and Florida could impact turnout and motivation.
Louis Jacobson, senior columnist for the Sabato Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Policy Center, he wrote earlier this month, a key question on Election Day will be whether “abortion rights supporters will extend their perfect 7-7 record since Roe v. Wade was overturned.”
Voters will also decide many other ballot issues, including recreational marijuana, a minimum wage escalate and ranked-choice voting.
In an earlier post on abortion voting questions, Jacobson and Samantha Putterman he wrote that “(e)the very post-Roe measure was on the ballot during relatively low-turnout elections – either in the November midterm elections, primary elections, or off-year elections.”
“Any solution that will make voting take place in 2024 will be before voters in November of the presidential year, when turnout will be much higher,” they wrote. “This could hurt abortion rights supporters because moderate and liberal voters have recently flexed their voting muscles more when turnout is low.”
Public opinion polls conducted by the Pew Research Center have been confirming this thesis for thirty years consistently shown support for keeping abortion legal outweighs support for making the procedure illegal in most or all cases.
A 2024 survey found that 63% of people want abortion to be legal in most or all cases, and 36% believe it should be illegal in all or most cases.
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