by Casey Harper
There’s a month left until Election Day in America, and fresh developments threaten to disrupt the close competition.
According to a Real Clear Politics polling average, the two candidates are nearly even in several key swing states.
Former President Donald Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while Vice President Kamala Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, although the lead in all six of those states is less than 2 points, which is within the margin of error of most polls.
According to RCP, the tie is in the state of Pennsylvania.
But the conflict in the Middle East and ongoing negotiations to close ports on the East Coast and the Persian Gulf could potentially be a crippling October surprise for Harris.
As vice president, Harris tried to tread lightly, taking credit for Biden’s economic recovery and other achievements while trying to avoid responsibility for the border crisis, 40-year high inflation and other problems that occurred in the same term.
The border, in particular, has become a troubling issue for Harris since Biden appointed her to lead the issue, though she has since downplayed her role as “border czar” amid a surge in illegal immigration while she was in office.
More than 14 million foreigners have crossed U.S. borders illegally since Biden-Harris took office, The Center Square reported.
October will bring more potential problems. Experts warned that a strike at the port could cause a edged enhance in prices of all types of goods, from food to alcohol to cars. The tentative agreement reached Thursday, which will reportedly give workers a 62% raise, temporarily ended a three-day shutdown that would have been devastating to the U.S. economy.
The American Feed Industry Association warned this week that port closures could “raise costs” and wreak havoc similar to the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Failure [United States Maritime Alliance] AND [International Longshoremen’s Association] “Reaching a labor agreement or the Biden administration’s intervention before the deal deadline now means that U.S. animal food producers face a dire trade situation that mirrors – or could be worse than – the days of the Covid-19 pandemic,” AFIA President said and, CEO Constance Cullman said in a statement.
Given the recent spike in inflation, voters may have little patience for Harris, who has overseen price increases of more than 20% since taking office, but the settlement will likely alleviate some concerns.
Polls have consistently shown for months that inflation is voters’ top concern.
The strike is over for now, but as the details are still being worked out, it’s possible that the deal could still fall through and result in Harris facing major political obligations.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East could also suddenly become an electoral issue if the looming war between Israel and Iran escalates into a broader regional conflict that draws in more American forces.
The United States helped shoot down Iranian missiles fired during Iran’s latest attack on Israel. Israel is at war with the Hamas terrorist group, which carried out the October 7 terrorist attack, and with Hezbollah, the Iran-backed terrorist group that has been shelling northern Israel for months.
Harris has so far handled the issue politically better than her nominated predecessor, President Joe Biden, who regularly faced protests from the left wing of his party.
During this week’s debate, this conflict was the first question asked, and Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, made clear that Israel has “the right to self-defense.”
However, if the powder keg explodes in October, it may be complex for Harris to distance herself from responsibility as Trump continues to emphasize that he had no such conflicts while in office.
“There is no question that economic uncertainty and international unrest are key features of the Biden-Harris administration,” Republican strategist Nathan Brand told The Center Square. “Voters clearly don’t want more of the same, which could spell trouble for Harris in November.”
Last week during the U.S. Vice Presidential Debate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio gleefully blasted Harris for the economic hardships she faced as vice president. No future debates are scheduled at this time.
“Honestly, Tim, I think you have a tough job here,” Vance told Walz. “You have to pretend that Donald Trump didn’t deliver a pay raise in return, which of course he did. We have to pretend that Donald Trump didn’t deliver lower inflation, which of course he did. And at the same time, we must defend Kamala Harris’ terrible economic situation, which has made gas, groceries and housing unaffordable for American citizens.”
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Casey Harper is a reporter for DC’s bureau Central Square.
Photo “Kamala Harris” by Kamala Harris and “Donald Trump” is next door Donald Trump.
