Nevadans headed to the polls Tuesday night for the state’s primary election, which included what will likely be one of the most significant choices in the upcoming November midterm elections. While the Decision Panel hasn’t released any numbers yet, Adam Laxalt, who was the state’s attorney general from 2015 to 2019, is expected to be the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate. But he faces a crowded primary, including from newcomer Sam Brown, an Army veteran.
Whoever wins will face Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, who won 47.1% of the vote, defeated Republican Joe Heck with 44.7% of the vote, and replaced retiring Sen. Harry Reid in 2016. Reid, another Democrat , served for decades in a Senate leadership role, was a key supporter of Masto, as was former President Barack Obama. Reid has since died.
However, now that Cortez Masto has a chance for re-election, she may not even get a second term because she is listed as one of the weakest officials on several lists and is highlighted as such by numerous outlets.
This includes being first on the list defenseless senators from RollCall in May, as well as coverage of Associated Press, Washington Times.AND POLICYemphasizing her as a “vulnerable” incumbent.
Reports from The Washington Times really single out Cortez Masto, and Seth McLaughlin quotes Jessica Taylor from the Cook Political Report:
“This is a very dangerous place,” said Jessica Taylor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “It’s virtually unanimous among Democratic and Republican strategists… that’s what they think Cortez Masto he’s the weakest Democratic senator, and that’s ahead of him [Sens.] Mark Kelly in Arizona and Raphael Warnock in Georgia.”
Political disadvantagers consider this race a “tie.” The result will go a long way in deciding the balance of power in the league Senate.
On Tuesday morning, POLITICO guide he pointed to an account by Blake Hounshell of The New York Times, who asked, “Is Nevada turning red?His subheadline noted that “no state has suffered more from the pandemic’s economic fallout, and voters can take out their anger on Democrats.”
As Hounshell wrote on Monday:
If the red tide arrives in November, as many expect, it will likely wash ashore in landlocked Nevada, a state where the recent history of Democratic victories masks just how hard-fought those triumphs have been.
Republicans haven’t won Nevada in a presidential election since 2004, when President George W. Bush narrowly overtook John Kerry. Races for statewide office were more controversial but still dominated by Democrats.
This year may be different. On Tuesday, Nevadans will cast the final votes in the primary elections that will determine what kind of candidates will carry the GOP banner in November. For now, it looks like many of these Republicans may get elected.
Much has been written about this the misfortunes of Senator Catherine Cortez MastoA Democrat who is running for re-election this year. Whenever her name appears in national news, it is invariably accompanied by some version of the phrase “one of the most endangered Democratic officials.”
In addition to mentioning specific races and candidates, Hounshell pointed to the state of the economy, as he teased in his subheadline:
If Nevada turns red in November, the state’s economic struggles will be a major factor.
Nevada’s unemployment rate rose to 28.5 percent in April 2020, just after the coronavirus pandemic shut down the tourism industry, which makes up a huge part of the state’s economy. The unemployment rate is currently 5 percent, but still not at pre-pandemic levels.
Other stories highlighted by POLITICO include “Election 2022: Republican Party contest in Nevada crucial for control of the Senate,” an article by Michelle L. Price and Ken Ritter for the Associated Press. While the article is mainly about Laxalt and Brown, it also mentions Cortez Masto’s chances:
While Laxalt is still considered the favorite to win, both candidates are expected to have similar chances in November of defeating Cortez Masto, who is expected to easily gain his party’s support over several little-known challengers.
“I imagine Laxalt would be a stronger general candidate than Brown, but I don’t think it would be a significant difference,” said Kenneth Miller, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
That’s because Cortez Masto, the first Latino elected to the Senate and successor to the overdue Sen. Harry Reid, is considered one of the weakest Democrats running for re-election this year.
Democrats, by and immense, have struggled this year, weighed down by an unpopular president and rising costs. In Nevada, high gas prices are especially felt by residents of Las Vegas’ sprawling suburbs or commuters from remote rural areas.
Forecasters consider the race a drop off.
As a swing state in the presidential election, Nevada had quite a track record in voting for the winning candidate, although in 2016 she voted for Hillary Clinton. Nevada voted for President Joe Biden by just 50.1 percent, and for Obama in 2008 and 2012 by 55.2 and 52.4 percent, respectively. Additionally, no other candidate in the last six presidential elections has received more than 50 percent.
Republicans were already predicted to regain control of the US House of Representatives, and the forecasts are getting better. It also seems possible, even likely, that Republicans will regain control of the Senate as well.
POLICY forecast for 2022 claims that control of the Senate rests with Republicans. Vox he also admitted that Republicans are favorites to win.
Earlier this month, Alan I. Abramowitz wrote for Sabato’s Crystal Ball he had this to say about Republicans’ chances, as a key point:
Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance of winning at least a seat and regaining control of the upper house. However, destitute candidates may lose their chances, as has happened in some other recent Senate races.
He also ties Nevada to this with additional emphasis:
…The most competitive races, with expected margins of less than 5 points, are expected to be held in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. These competitions should be treated as penalty shootouts. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, are also expected to be close. Four of the six contests, expected to be highly competitive, are currently run by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire). while the remaining 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight advantage in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potentially flipping seats based on the fundamentals of these races. However, Republicans are also defending seats in Ohio and Wisconsin where their projected winning margin is just over 10 points, indicating that these seats could potentially be at stake.
In terms of historical trends, Democrats are in a really bad spot, considering the president’s party almost always loses congressional seats in his first midterm elections and has fairly slim majorities in both houses. Democrats control the Senate 50-50 only because Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tie-breaking vote.
President Joe Biden’s record-low poll numbers certainly won’t lend a hand Cortez Masto’s chances. According to Civiqs survey The latest update on Monday showed Biden with 32 percent approval in the state and 58 percent disapproval.
