Tuesday’s primary elections in four states showed some encouraging signs and positive results for the Republican Party. Some thoughts on last night’s results: (1) Much media attention before the vote was devoted to… specific businessman running for Senate in West Virginia. President Trump in a tweet earlier this week sharply criticized Don Blankenship, who was recently released from prison, drawing a rebuke from Blankenship, who described himself as “Trumpier than TrumpWest Virginia Republicans apparently disagreed, relegating Blankenship’s bizarre campaign to a distant third place. It’s a victory for Trump and a victory for the party. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s team mocked Blankenship on Twitter, clearly happy to have the opportunity to troll the man who did it he called them boss “Swamp Captain” and “Cocaine Mitch,” attacking McConnell’s “Chinese family.” For fans of the series Narcosthis is damn good meme: :
Thank you for playing @DonBlankenship. #WVSen pic.twitter.com/TV1ETgQdmu
— Team Mitch (@Team_Mitch) May 9, 2018
(2) The winner in West Virginia was Attorney General Patrick Morrissey, a powerful conservative with an extensive history of fighting the Obama administration in court. He also won statewide before. Joe Manchin may not be uncomplicated to defeat, but Morrissey probably gives Republicans their best chance. But they were warning signs for Manchin also in last night’s numbers (in addition to his overall polling problems):
In the 2012 primary election, Manchin received 80% of the vote.
It was against a relatively conservative Democrat, so I might start getting interested if Swearingen gets more than 20% of the vote.https://t.co/0Vl884dx2G
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) May 8, 2018
Manchin’s unknown and virtually penniless opponent ended up going overboard 30 percent main vote. In response, Republicans reacted sharply to the following statement: “Manchin received just 69.8% of the vote against Paula Jean Swearengin, a political newcomer running on an anti-coal platform. This result represents a marked decline in his support compared to 2012, when Manchin received almost 80% of the votes in the Democratic primary. Even more disturbing for Manchin is the drop in the number of votes he received by 52,302 fewer votes this yearthan in his last primary schooleven though 47,710 more votes were cast in the Republican Party primaries than in 2012. Half-year 2014Republican turnout increased 61% yesterday, compared to an increase of just 14% for Democrats.”
(3) Turnout and enthusiasm were troubling signs for Republicans in 2017 and 2018. This week’s results offer a relatively sporadic sun rays on this front for the GOP. Take a close look at the Ohio stats:
Tuesday’s primary election saw a reversal of the trend in GOP turnout enthusiasm (great news for @NRSC AND @tankcat):
WV:
-Republican turnout increased 61% compared to 2014 (Dementia increased only 14%)
IN:
-Republican Party turnout increased by 43% compared to 2014
OH:
-GOP outperformed Democrats in every statewide race
-Attendance increased by 48% compared to 2014— Chris Wilson (@WilsonWPA) May 9, 2018
(4) Speaking of Indiana, party insiders are elated with the businessman’s nomination, and outsider Mike Braun will bring a significant amount of personal resources to the table in an effort to unseat Joe Donnelly in a state Trump is carrying. Apart from the self-financing aspect, Braun has other strengthstoo:
The nice thing about Braun’s nomination to the Republican Party is that his biggest primary advantage carries over to the general public. He is undoubtedly in the best position to run against Donnelly and DC and has no voting record of his own to defend.
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) May 9, 2018
Like everyone else, he also has faint points – just like leftist activists already promising attacking him – but I don’t think they would have chosen Braun as their ideal opponent. On this score, the organized left went 0-2 in key primaries last night, actually spending money strengthening Blankenship in West Virginia. When Democrats can hand-pick their opponents, bad things happen. Republican voters wisely choose not to enter these races.
(5) Finally, one more thing modern data point from the state of Florida, where a popular incumbent GOP governor is mounting a shocking challenge unknown Democrat official:
New #FLSen questionnaire ??
Rick Scott (right) 44%
Bill Nelson (no) 40%https://t.co/y33P8B4LiS— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) May 9, 2018
I’ll leave you with this takeaway summary From the Executive Director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee:
Tonight is a huge night for most. Maybe it’s time to do fewer deep dives into Beto and talk more about all the VERY vulnerable Democrats on the map in 2018.
— Chris Hansen (@tankcat) May 9, 2018
