NEWARK, Ohio — In special congressional elections, the most essential message is often the election date.
“This might be the most important thing you leave voters with,” said Wade Rogers, who was with his 15-year-old nephew and his wife, Ana Rogers, at Vice President Mike Pence’s rally for Republican House candidate Troy Balderson on July 30. For the record, the special election pitting Balderson against Democrat Danny O’Connor and Green Party candidate Joe Manchik is scheduled for Tuesday, Aug. 7.
Pence left no doubt in the packed event hall in downtown picturesque Newark. He repeated the date Aug. 7 no less than a dozen times. He even had attendees repeat it to him.
This is a special election, and like most special elections, commentators are holding it up as an indicator of what’s to come in November. How large is the “blue wave”? What do suburban Republicans think of President Trump? And what is the general mood of the country?
Then again, maybe the election is simply showing us what’s happening in central Ohio right now. Maybe we journalists are just overanalyzing these low-turnout events. It wasn’t that long ago that Democrats won the first seven House special elections of the 2010 cycle, only to be crushed in the runoff elections.
There’s a good chance this Ohio seat will remain Republican (the GOP has held it for 40 years). But it’s not a given (Democrats are excited to be everywhere). Few polls have been done, and the few polls that have shown the race tightening toward the end, with Balderson holding a slight lead.
Outside Pence’s event, Democratic activists with signs for every cause chanted slogans and tried to engage GOP supporters. One gentleman with a bullhorn chanted “Balderson hates puppies” at people trying to get in.
“The Trump hysteria is getting a little old,” Rogers says. “Especially when you come here to get in line, this is the first time you’ve been this political — when we’ve come to a rally of any kind — and you hear the opposition there shouting, ‘Troy Balderson hates puppies.’ I mean, to me, these are people who are out of touch with normality.”
Rogers, who has never been much of a political figure, said he knows what’s at stake, not just in this special election but in November. He addressed a question that has vexed many reporters: Is he satisfied enough with the Trump presidency’s performance to take the time to vote for a member of Congress not once, but twice this year?
“Of course,” he says with a broad smile. “We have to show up. It’s important that the president has a Republican Congress that will help him push his agenda through for the next two years. You can’t take things like that for granted.”
Ana Rogers is the daughter of a Guatemalan immigrant who came to the country in 1968, served in the U.S. military and later became a citizen. She agreed, saying, “My father, a true patriot of this country, instilled in me the importance of showing up to vote. I am beyond thrilled with this administration and understand how important it is to show up to vote in Congress.”
The Rogerses, both 42, have two adult daughters who are serving in the U.S. Navy. Neither watches cable TV. “Oh, we turned it off a while ago,” said Ana Rogers, who said there’s a large world out there that isn’t filled with arguments and cable-TV showoffs.
Danny Barren, who attended alone, was one of many teenage people who came to the event to hear what the vice president had to say and show his support for Balderson. The 6-foot-3, serious-minded biochemistry and theology major at Wittenberg University is also an offensive lineman on the football team and a proud Libertarian. The 20-year-old from Gahanna, Ohio, said he will vote in person in Tuesday’s special election and by absentee ballot for the Republican House candidate in the fall. Barren supports Trump’s policies but is not thrilled with his rhetoric. “This might be a little too much for me,” he said.
Balderson’s event could not have been more enthusiastic. The hall was packed, and the crowd filled the lobby and spilled into the streets. As the Pence-Balderson motorcade drove out of town, people lined the square to wave.
When news broke Thursday that Trump would be attending another rally Saturday, observers wondered: Had the race become dangerously close, and was O’Connor on the verge of a Conor Lamb-style victory? Or was the president simply trying to make a point with his appearance?
We won’t know any of those answers until Tuesday night, and we’ll be overanalyzing the results. But one thing is for sure: Trump voters are excited to get to the polls in Ohio. They understand not only the optics but the political implications of not going — probably more than Trump supporters did in previous special elections.
