In one of the last campaign events before the November election nationwide, residents of Ohio’s 12th congressional district today we make a decision who will replace retiring GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi. The suburban Columbus district is solidly red; President Trump won it by double digits in 2016, and it has been held by Republicans for nearly four decades. But it also has an independent streak, having voted relatively narrowly for Barack Obama in 2008. Both sides, with visual, fundraising and moral considerations in mind, have showered the contest with resources. Trump has heavily loaded in the final stretch, trying to assist his party’s candidate, state senator Troy Balderson, achieve victory:
Troy Balderson, running for Congress in Ohio, is in a huge primary battle against a candidate who was just caught lying about his relationship with Nancy Pelosi, who is delicate on crime, borders, and your Second Amendment — and wants to raise your taxes (a lot). Vote for Troy on Tuesday!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 4, 2018
Here is the president predicting Balderson’s victory in campaign style rally over the weekend. “They’re talking about this ‘blue wave’. I don’t think so:”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I3RKK2omg0
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a regular Trump critic, also he strongly supported Baldersonwhich Republican Party officials hope will assist unite the party’s voters around their candidate:
Ohio Gov. John Kasich and President Trump rarely agree on many issues, but both have decided to endorse GOP candidate Troy Balderson in his crucial race for the House nomination. Trump endorsed Balderson on Twitter last week, and Kasich announced he would endorse the GOP candidate in a statement Thursday morning. In his endorsement, the governor urged Republican voters in the district to vote for “reasonable, pragmatic conservative representation,” as they have in the past. Kasich represented part of the district during his time in Congress, but the district lines have changed little since then. “Troy was a partner in turning around Ohio as we enacted tax cuts and balanced the budget,” Kasich said. “I will vote for Troy and I am proud to support him.” Kasich’s endorsement gives Balderson a united front in a state where the GOP is deeply divided. Republicans hope the signal from Kasich, who remains popular with moderate Republicans, will assist the party retain its seat in the Aug. 7 special election. Democrat Danny O’Connor openly attacked Kasich’s voters during his campaign…
A recent poll gave the GOP candidate the slimmest of margins — just one point — over O’Connor, who positions himself as a moderate. But he has said he would support Pelosi for speaker if necessary and has decried the national debt, while dancing around specific questions about single-payer health care … and opposition to any entitlement reforms. Public opinion polling showed that district voters generally preferred a Republican Congress, but O’Connor had built a significant lead among independents. The GOP called O’Connor “Danny’s dishonestypointing out a number of instances of inflating his resume, and also emphasizing his position on Pelosi’s line on several key issues. Balderson is running on the basis of his record, as exemplified by this “achievement” style TV ad broadcast in the last days of the campaign:
While Trump talks about immigration and guns — on which he and the candidate agree — in a primary move, Balderson is reaching out to moderates with that message. His approach mirrors that of House Republican leaders who are pushing for a story of significant achievement what makes voters and the country ‘better now:’
I’ll leave you with a few more comments on the race dynamics ahead of today’s result, starting with this analysis from RCP’s Sean Trende: “The distinctly Republican 12th and its predecessors have sent Republicans to Congress in every election since 1980 (and 1936 before that). But the weakness of the state-of-the-art GOP among college-educated whites will hit difficult here, and we could be in for a surprise that spells total doom in November… If Balderson loses, it will be difficult to paint it as anything but bad news for the GOP. Yes, most of the races will feature incumbents, but there are plenty of open seats in similar suburban areas that are more Democratic than the 12th,” he warns. And here’s last note on not jumping to conclusions based on early vote results that are likely to favor Democrats:
Warning (which I’ll repeat on Tuesday): O’Connor could win early voting in OH-12 by about 30 points. Don’t overdo it
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 5, 2018
