Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-OH) resigned to return to the private sector, which sparked today’s special election. Democrats weren’t even supposed to be competitive here. Instead, we had a thrilling race in which Democrat Danny O’Connor, who serves as Franklin County Recorder, mounted a stiff challenge against state Sen. Troy Balderson and the Republican Party in a congressional district that Trump won by double digits.
This special elections in 12tcongressional district It’s the last contest before the 2018 midterms, where Democratic enthusiasm is at its peak. It’s a wake-up call that Democrats see as a sign of a blue wave if they win or come very close. Whoever wins will have to defend their seat again in November. While this cycle is full of nuance, there are troubling signs that the GOP could potentially lose the House. But there’s still plenty of time.
An RNC official told Townhall that the committee has mobilized 800 volunteers who have had at least 1 million voter contacts during this special election. While liberal media outlets may crave a blue wave and take pleasure in promoting stories about the GOP’s decline in the fall, the RNC has been operating there since 2017 and in other states longer. They are supposed to match the number of voter contacts they had in 2016; Democrats are not even close to matching those numbers this cycle.
Because Ohio is a key swing state, the RNC never left after Trump defeated Hillary two years ago. They set up two offices in 12tcongressional district and spent close to $650,000 on the race. The RNC, NRCC, Ohio GOP and other groups “went all-in” on this race — and it looks like those efforts are paying off.
“Today, Ohio 12th District voters elected a true conservative who is committed to the pro-growth policies that have already brought jobs and economic certainty to the state under President Trump’s leadership,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement. “Voters are tired of Democrats’ message of resistance and blocking, and Danny O’Connor’s empty rhetoric was no exception. With President Trump’s support helping him win, Troy Balderson’s victory this evening is another example of a so-called “blue wave,” which is nothing more than a ripple.
New York Times he had a good piece how both sides fought back while noticing something the Trump White House/Republican Party wasn’t doing enough [emphasis mine]:
Most bipartisan polls have shown a narrow lead for Mr. Balderson, a 56-year-old former car dealer turned state lawmaker with a wooden public demeanor. But Republicans see his position as precarious in a season when Democrats vote with passionate enthusiasm. And Democratic attacks on Mr. Balderson — for telling The Columbus Dispatch that he might support raising the age of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare — have hurt him.
[…]
Republicans appear sensitive to Mr. Trump’s limitations, even in a right-wing area like the 12th District. In addition to the attack ads, the Congressional Leadership Fund is also running ads in which Gov. John Kasich, one of Mr. Trump’s most outspoken Republican critics, praises Mr. Balderson. The message to white-collar centrists has come behind schedule: Mr. Kasich waited weeks to endorse Mr. Balderson, despite urgent pleas from Republicans, including Representative Steve Stivers, an Ohioan who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee.
[…]
Mr. O’Connor, a Democrat, has tried to stir up harmless outrage by highlighting widely accepted themes such as protecting government-backed pensions, rejecting corporate giving and promoting “new leadership” in Washington.
Mr. O’Connor’s campaign has exuded an aura of defiance, tinged with amusement, at the assault on him. One wall of his headquarters, a converted clothing store in Columbus, is adorned with brutally negative Republican campaign mail: Two mailers feature images of armed police officers, with text claiming that Mr. O’Connor, who favors stricter gun regulations, supports confiscating legal firearms. Another shows Mr. O’Connor hanging from puppet strings held by Ms. Pelosi.
Echoing a statement by Representative Conor Lamb, the surprise winner of a March special election near Pittsburgh, Mr. O’Connor vowed early on that he would not support Ms. Pelosi. He said in an interview that by focusing on her, Republicans were signaling their own weakness.
“That tells me they have nothing to talk about,” Mr. O’Connor said, adding: “I’ve said repeatedly, ‘I won’t vote for her. I won’t vote for her.'”
And that’s the worrying part: The GOP has a lot to brag about this cycle. Unemployment is at an 18-year low, more jobs are being hired than people are looking for work, three million jobs have been created, the biggest wage augment for workers in a decade, bonuses for three million working-class families, consumer and small-business confidence at record highs — all thanks to Trump’s tax cuts. The economy is booming; it grew by 4 percent in the second quarter. The GOP doesn’t seem to be pushing it aggressively enough. Yes, make fun of Pelosi, Maxine Waters and the rest of America’s crazy progressive wing, but also point out that Trump’s agenda has helped the American economy. One way to kill it is to elect more Democrats to Congress. They are the anti-economic party — and the window for making that case is closing quick. O’Connor also said that he would support Pelosi.
Here is my latest assessment of Danny O’Connor’s (D) needs in each #OH12 county that will win today’s special election (votes cast for two parties):
Delaware: 47%
Franklin: 64%
Licking: 42%
Marion: 32%
Tomorrow: 31%
Muskingum: 42%
Richland: 43%— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 7, 2018
@Redistrict O’Connor’s baseline compared to current totals:
Delaware: 47%, up 48% (38 of 159)
Franklin: 64%, with 67% (130/199)
Licking: 42%, at 38% (92/96)
Marion: 32%, with 31.2% (all together)
Morrow: 31%, with 29.2% (all together)
Muskingum: 42%, vs. 32.9% (44/45)
Richland: 43% at 41.6 (50/50)— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) August 8, 2018
Turnout in key rural GOP areas was frail, very frail — but Mr. Balderson looks set to squeeze out a victory. So the GOP looks set to hold the line, if only just.
The Latest: All precincts in Marion County (the smallest, most Republican county) are reporting results. Good news for Balderson (R): He won 68%-31%. But bad news for him: That’s only 41% of 2016’s turnout, which is *really* indigent turnout if those numbers are final.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 8, 2018
Delaware is a really gigantic question. Historically, it’s a very Republican district. Early voting was also very robust in O’Connor’s favor. One possibility, a lot of GOP left. Two: O’Connor will do better in a well-educated area. I just can’t say yet.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 8, 2018
I’m starting to get a little more out of Franklin. Turnout is looking gradually weaker, but O’Connor is hitting his voter turnout goals. Overall, it looks like we’re headed for a close race. Relative urban versus rural turnout is a gigantic unanswered question
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 8, 2018
Maybe I like Balderson’s chances a little bit for now? It’s strenuous to say without knowing which districts he’s in.
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) August 8, 2018
100% Licking Co. now in, O’Connor at 38% there (we estimate he needed 42%). But turnout there is only 49% ’16, well below where Franklin Co. will be. #OH12
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 8, 2018
O’Connor did much better in the last round of Election Day votes from Delaware, so he didn’t lose anything. But I think what’s left in Delaware is a little worse for O’Connor now than it is based on early voting results.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 8, 2018
Balderson leads by almost a point with 6 districts remaining photo:twitter.com/kCwGB9KKNR
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 8, 2018
Drudge calls it pic.twitter.com/spbsNgHBas
— Matt Vespa (@mVespa1) August 8, 2018
UPDATE: It hasn’t been officially announced, but Balderson has apparently secured the victory. David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report declared Balderson the winner, and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight said that even if there were a recount due to provisional votes, Balderson would still come out on top. President Donald J. Trump, who flew to Ohio over the weekend to campaign for Balderson, declared victory, noting that his stop helped seal the victory and that he hopes Balderson will win again in three months. In the meantime, there seems to be an ongoing debate about whether Trump’s endorsement or Gov. Kasich’s endorsement helped secure Balderson’s victory. We’re going to hear a lot of crap from the left about how this is a moral victory. That even if they lost, they won. And that’s why moral victories are total crap. They’re just a way to ease the sting of defeat. Moral victories are an exercise in moving the goalposts. Not that you don’t already, but when CNN, MSNBC, and other liberal media outlets start reveling in moral victories 101, turn that channel off.
Prediction: Troy Balderson (right) beats Danny O’Connor (defenseman) in #OH12 special unless there is a tabulation error/provisional data that we don’t know about.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 8, 2018
According to my GOP source, Trump played a “decisive role” in Balderson’s fate by coming to the state this weekend.
— Caitlin Huey-Burns (@CHueyBurns) August 8, 2018
When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was losing in early voting 64-36. That was not good. After my speech Saturday night, there was a gigantic turnaround for the better. Now Troy is winning gigantic at a very arduous time of year to vote. He will win BIG in November.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 8, 2018
The scenario is not crazy:
— Provisional votes reduce Balderson’s lead to less than 0.5%
— Which (if I understand the law correctly) will result in an automatic recount in Ohio
— However, Balderson wins the recount because recounts rarely reverse results unless the difference is really *really* tiny.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 8, 2018
