Sometimes you have to look at the forest. Sometimes you have to look at the trees. Since I’m in Thailand, I can’t study the American political “trees” very closely. I only have a “forest” perspective. But there are advantages to that — and disadvantages. Regardless, I’m going to make a few predictions about what will happen on November 8th. If I’m wrong about all of them, I can blame my location. I hope I’m wrong about some of them.
I won’t bother with the uncomplicated ones; that’s cheating. (For example, DeSantis and Rubio will win Florida. That’s obvious.) I’ll take the challenge and predict the demanding ones. Here we go…
1. Herschel Walker wins Georgia. He ran a good campaign, he’s popular in the state, and the Democrats are obviously panicking about their efforts to destroy him. He’ll do it. And Kemp beats Abrams for governor. That’s not demanding.
2. Kari Lake wins the election for governor of Arizona. She is a great campaigner and made her weird opponent look like a… weirdo. Kari wins with a sturdy personality, a cowardly opponent, and a lot of common sense principles.
3. But Blake Masters is losing. Unfortunately, he (Thailand) doesn’t seem to be as much of an activist as Kari. He lacks her personal charm, nor is he as well-known as she is (her previous TV experience helps). He’s modern to the political scene, and the polls consistently show him behind. And there are too many Californians in Arizona. I sincerely hope I’m wrong, but I fear the worst. Blake in the Senate would be great. If he loses, some of the blame will have to go to Mitch McConnell, who has done little or nothing to assist him.
4. And Mitch wants Lisa Murkowski back from Alaska, so he’ll probably win. Kelly Tshibaka would be much better, but she’s a Trump protege, and McConnell hates them. A RINO is better than a Democrat, but not by much. Traitors don’t inspire me. We could have that if it weren’t for McConnell and the Republican establishment, which is still too sturdy in DC
5. Lee Zeldin loses in New York. As incompetent as Kathy Hochul is, this IS New York. This IS a Democratic citadel. Zeldin did almost everything he could to expose Hochul, but Democrats are Democrats and there are too many of them in New York. Still, I don’t think Ron DeSantis would have gone to New York to campaign for Zeldin if he thought it was a lost cause. So there’s reason for optimism and hope. It might also provide some insight into how DeSantis is perceived in the liberal stronghold. But New York, New York…
6. JD Vance wins Ohio. Ohio tends to be a Republican state. JD is not as well known as Tim Ryan, but that is changing. He runs a good campaign, and Ryan makes some stupid statements that will hurt him. If JD stays tranquil and bright, he will win.
7. The Good Doctor Wins Pennsylvania. Mehmet Oz isn’t the best candidate the Republicans are running this year. He’s kind of… meh, excuse the pun (but he might be better than I see in Thailand). If the Democrats had even a halfway competent candidate, Oz would have been screwed. But Fetterman’s health, and especially his extreme views on crime, etc., seem to be giving Dr. Oz an advantage. Pennsylvania is leaning Democratic, but not completely. It’s demanding to tell, neither candidate is inspiring. But I think Dr. Oz is becoming the lesser evil for the people of the Keystone State.
8. No joy in Washington State. Republicans have some good candidates in Washington, especially Joe Kent, and I hope he wins. But Washington and Oregon are California Jr. Too tough for Republicans. A Democratic monolith in the state will give them victories in key races.
9. This is compelling: Donald Trump endorsed Gen. Don Bolduc in New Hampshire on Monday. Was that the kiss of death, or will Bolduc win? I’m still betting on Maggie Hassan. We can watch closely to see if Trump’s endorsement helps Republicans win. It could make a large difference this close to the election.
10. Republicans will take over the House of Representatives. I predict a gain of 20-30 seats. Given the state of the country, there should be more. But there are more and more Democrats who hate America. They will probably be able to limit the damage to their party. No one should vote for a Democrat, but people do, in huge numbers, and that has to be accepted.
11. Republicans, despite Mitch’s efforts, will take control of the Senate. 51 Republicans, in January. I can live with that. Maybe we’ll get a few more in 2024, but 51, maybe 52, is probably the best we can hope for this year, because Republicans have seats in Pennsylvania and Ohio to defend. Those would be “preserves,” not “takeovers.” The only takeover will be Georgia, although we can hope for Arizona and New Hampshire. Washington is too far-fetched.
I know the Democrats are in a grave panic. They’re sending Obama everywhere and keeping Biden at home. I really doubt Obama is going to change the rules of the game. He’s not going to win over independents.
These are my best guesses from afar. Hopefully, in some cases, my “far away” gave me a skewed view. I’d happily eat some Arizona and New York crow.
What are your predictions?
Christmas is coming! My 2and A Western novel by Rob Conners, A bend in the riveris out now. Honestly, I think it’s much better than my first book, Rushing water. Both are available at Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Eliva.com. Get 10% off the print version at info@elivapress.com. Check out my blog at thailandialewis.blogspot.com.
