The lack of history on this topic is usually a good sign that the polls are out of date. For a while, it was stories about how close is the us senate in iowa the race, sources report, has become, with Democrat Michael Franken trailing incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley by three points. the latest Des Moines Register poll Grassley led Franken 46-43. He had an eight-point lead in previous polls, which should galvanize some Democrats about unseating the longtime Republican. But even liberal media reports you are wondering if this story is true. Grassley is an institution in the Hawkeye State — even if the latest polls show Democrats within reach.
A poll by The Des Moines Register shows independent voters shifting to Franken, and longtime pollster J. Ann Selzer says the close race suggests Democrats have a candidate running a solid campaign. On paper, it’s Grassley. the hardest in nearly 40 years; he defeated Democratic incumbent Senator John Culver by eight points in 1980 (via Des Moines Register):
Two election analysts are slightly lowering Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley’s chances for re-election in November following the release of a novel Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, though they still say a Grassley victory is likely.
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It promises to be a closer race than any Grassley has faced since he defeated an incumbent Democrat by 8 percentage points in 1980 to win his first election to the U.S. Senate.
Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report Sabato change their ratings of the race from a “certain” or “certain” Republican victory to a “likely” Republican victory.
[…]
“Do I think Chuck Grassley is in serious danger of losing? No, I don’t,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “But I also think we’ve seen enough in this race to look at it as maybe a different category than, you know, the Oklahoma Senate race, things like that — some of the other races in the safe Republican column.”
[…]
Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at the Cook Political Report, released a change to her rankings Tuesday afternoon. She noted the poll results, including numbers that show Grassley’s approval rating is now underwater for the first time in Iowa’s poll history, with more disapproving (48%) than approving (44%).
Still, Taylor writes, “We still view Grassley as the clear favorite to win re-election, but this could be his closest race since he was first elected in 1980, by 8 points.”
Apparently, not everyone is convinced, because being an incumbent for more than 40 years has its advantages. Even if his disapproval rating hits a record high, there’s no way a huge swath of Iowa Republicans will abandon ship and vote Democratic. Iowa is losing its swing-state label as it becomes more reliably Republican. This is a midterm election cycle where Republicans could benefit from a last-minute boost in support, as Democrats seem unable to address or recognize the economic recession, high inflation, and rising crime. The lack of polls in this race shows what political operatives on both sides think about his contest.
The same conditions apply to Ohio, the cream of the crop of swing states. The Buckeye State has now swung so far Republican that observers are now wondering whether Democrats I could win there again.
The silence in the cornfields since mid-October is all you need to know. Grassley wins the election.
