by Bethany Blankley
After skipping press conferences and live interviews and changing her tune on a number of issues, Vice President Kamala Harris now trails former President Donald Trump slightly in several key swing states two months out from the election. New polls show they’re statistically tied nationally.
“Harris has actually been losing support in the polls over the last few weeks in most of the key swing states,” said pollster Nate Silver. Silver was the founder and editor-in-chief New York TimesFiveThirtyEight and was a special correspondent for ABC News until last year. He now covers election data for the Silver Bulletin.
A few days earlier Silver designed Trump leads in the Electoral College but not the popular vote.
According to his analysis, Trump has a 52.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris’ 47.3 percent, based on “our best-case outcome projections based on 40,000 simulations from our model.” The same model predicts Harris will win the popular vote by 50.3 percent to 48.5 percent.
On September 6th bulletinSilver suggests that Harris “has gained relatively greater reach among young voters and voters of color… This is still an election that Harris can win.”
Ahead of the first televised debate between Trump and Harris on Tuesday, “there is now a 20 percent chance that she will win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College,” he said.
He notes that Trump has gained over Harris in Silver’s polling averages, “at least in the key Electoral College states.”
Recently released New York Times/College of Siena vote he has Trump narrowly forward among likely voters nationwide by one percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent.
The poll’s margin of error is 3 percent, not significantly changed from a poll conducted in tardy July.
The poll also shows that statistically the two states have the same result in all seven key states.
According to the New York Times poll averages“Taken together, it is clear that the race is tight and that each candidate will either win or lose,” we read.
In response to the survey, Silver he said“The highest-rated pollster in the country and a big sample size. Luckily for Harris, there’s a debate this week and none of this will matter if she has a good night.”
Other surveys show a similar trend. A recent EPIC-MRA study vote The survey found that 47 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump, while 46 percent said they would vote for Harris.
A recent KSTP/SurveyUSA study vote shows Harris’ support has halved. She previously led Trump by 10 points; she now leads by five, according to her polling.
According to Silver’s analysis, since the Democratic Convention in tardy August, “compared to the start of the DNC, Harris has lost ground” in six of seven key swing states.
According to his analysis, Siver predicts that all seven key states will swing to the right in November, with the largest margins of 4 percent and 4.5 percent in North Carolina and Arizona, respectively.
According to his Sept. 6 report, Pennsylvania (R+2.4), Michigan (R+1.2), Georgia (R+3.1), Wisconsin (R+1.1) and Nevada (R+2.2) remain within the margin of error or are statistically tied but with a Republican advantage. analysis.
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Bethany Blankley is a contributor Central Square.
Photo “Kamala Harris by Kamala Harris“Donald Trump” is by Donald Trumpand “The White House” is by Cezary Piwowarczyk CC4.0.
