I had just returned from a trip to rural Wisconsin, where I spoke at an event attended by many committed conservatives who understand the state’s political landscape intimately. Two themes emerged from the many discussions: First, the Badger State’s gubernatorial race between Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and GOP challenger Tim Michels is a coin toss. Polls suggest Evers is leading by a hair, but as we’ve noted, Wisconsin’s polls have been particularly bad in recent cycles, vastly underestimating Republican support. The race looks and feels like a tie, they told me, as is often the case in Wisconsin. There are, of course, persuasive voters, but the state is deeply polarized, and races often hinge on brutal turnout. In the Senate matchup, they were generally more certain that Senator Ron Johnson, the Republican incumbent, is now leading and has a good chance of reelection.
Johnson was first elected in 2010 in a Tea Party wave that was part of a nationwide backlash against the Obama administration. He was left for political death six years later when national Republicans withdrew resources from a race that was considered a lost cause. Johnson not only won, he won by 3.5 points, beat the poll results by about six percentage points on average. It was unclear whether Johnson intended to run again this cycle, but he ultimately took the risk, and some polls conducted over the summer looked pretty bleak. The renowned Marquette poll had him trailing by seven points in August. But their up-to-date results from September show the incumbent in the lead. I’m told this is the first time Johnson whenever led in the Marquette poll. Another public poll shows him up four points, which is roughly what people I spoke to are seeing in private data as well. Johnson has a fractional lead in average RCP. What explains the change? In compact, his opponent is a radical, and Republicans are criticizing him for his statements and past. Wisconsinites are learning about Mandela Barnes, who is a far-leftist, and it seems that many of them have stern concerns about sending him to the United States Senate. Here’s one tough ad There is a PAC supported by Mitch McConnell operating in the state:
Senate Leadership Fund, a PAC affiliated with Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, has launched its first ads after Labor Day in Wisconsin, targeting Democratic candidate Mandela Barnes on crime. All the ads have the same theme, arguing that Barnes would make crime worse. The narrator in the 30-second TV ad says: Barnes would eliminate cash bail “even after the Waukesha Christmas parade attack” and supports “amnesty and sanctuary cities for illegal immigrants.” The narrator adds that Barnes worked for a group that wants to defund the police and has a “long history of denigrating the police while spending your tax dollars to protect themselves.”
This one is even better brutal and powerful because of how personal it is:
As Lieutenant Governor Barnes reckless and misleading comments after the Jacob Blake shooting that were distorted early on and often. His inflammatory remarks about police echoed across the state as the city of Kenosha burned, torched by rioters. The state’s response was tender, and the chaos continued. Businesses and lives were destroyed. People died. This is extraordinary:
At the beginning of this week it was revealed that Mandela Barnes lied about one of the police recommendations he advertised, leaving him with 7 retired police officers and 1 serving police officer on his list of recommendations. But as reported by CBS 58 Yesterday, the only remaining serving police officer removed his name from the list, leaving only 7 RETIRED officers on Barnes’ support list. Yes, there are 13,400 law enforcement officers in Wisconsin and ZERO supported Mandela Barnes for Senate. A statement from NRSC spokeswoman Lizzie Litzow: “This is a huge red flag. Mandela Barnes is so dangerous to Wisconsin that no law enforcement officer will support his run for Senate. If Wisconsinites are not yet familiar with Barnes’ stance on crime, take this as a warning: Barnes will only make their state and communities less safe.”
Barnes is so hostile to law enforcement and has such extreme pro-crime policies that his campaign couldn’t fine a single lively police officer in the entire state who was willing to support his campaign. Not a single one. Ron Johnson isn’t a sure thing to win a third term, but his chances look better than they did this cycle, and probably better than they did in whenever he did that last time he was on top. Based on public opinion polls and my on-the-ground intelligence in Wisconsin, I would call him a slight favorite at this point in the race, as voters continue to learn more about his opponent. If Johnson holds on to that seat, it would boost his party’s chances of regaining a slim majority in November. If the GOP can also hold on to the seat Pat Toomey is vacating in Pennsylvania, they’ll be in the driver’s seat. Dr. Oz has been trailing in every poll in this contest, but activists on both sides acknowledge that the field has tightened considerably. Oz is on the air with very good up-to-date TV spot that weaves together a number of sturdy themes aimed at Democrat John Fetterman, who, like his counterpart in Wisconsin, is far to the left:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV8Hp9vP1pA
Oz attacks Fetterman on crime and the economy, while noting that Fetterman (still recovering from a stroke) has avoided debates before early voting begins. Fetterman’s views on criminal “justice” are… really something. There’s a lot of material to work with. Conservative columnist George Will, who has little loyalty to the Republican Party, has a up-to-date column annoying Fetterman for being a parasite and a failure for most of his adult life:
Phew. https://t.co/41kF8mE6pH photo: twitter.com/9qXgax5xfI
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 21, 2022
Read this. These are bruises. There is onslaught unlike this guy:
“Sanctuary cities are another policy I strongly support.” — Democrat John Fetterman photo:twitter.com/iptcONeZKP
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 21, 2022
In Pennsylvania, nearly 1,200 prisoners are serving sentences for second-degree murder.
John Fetterman said he wanted to “release” every single one of them. All 1,200 of them. photo:twitter.com/62VAzOfjn9
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 20, 2022
I’ll leave you with the latest results from the three most essential Senate races for Republicans, where Republicans are leading narrowly or by a diminutive margin: ohio, North Carolinaand Florida:
?? FLORIDA SURVEY by Suffolk University
FL SENATE
(P) Marco Rubio 45% (+4)
(D) Val Demings 41%GOVERNOR FL
(R) Ron DeSantis 48% (+7)
(D) Charlie Crist 41%2024 Florida Republican Party primary election
Ron DeSantis 48% (+8)
40% for Donald Trumphttps://t.co/q3OysDdQCm photo:twitter.com/RndVbGqbsN— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 21, 2022
This too-early 2024 gem in the Sunshine State is fascinating because it’s a complete reversal of Suffolk’s results on the exact same question earlier this year. DeSantis trailed Trump by a similar margin then, but not anymore. Same poll shows DeSantis crushing Both Biden and Harris in hypothetical presidential showdowns in Florida, by 8 to 12 points. Trump also leads both of them, although by significantly smaller margins (2-3 points).
