by Keith Naughton
For several months, society has been flooded with surveys. national polls, state polls, issue polls. But the $64 question remains: Who wins for the president, Trump or Biden?
Over the past two months, the two presumptive candidates have swapped places in the top spot multiple times, with Trump mostly having the advantage. So the miniature answer is that the race is so close that neither is Really ahead, at least we cannot say with much certainty who is leading in this nationwide voting test. Trump is probably very slightly ahead of him and has been ahead since February.
In miniature, the polls are going up, but the electorate is not. The reason why different results appear and why Biden comes out ahead in some polls has to do with pollsters’ decisions and conclusions, as well as the nature of polling and sampling.
To conduct an right poll, any credible pollster will try to construct a representative sample of the electorate. If you find the right mix of Republicans, Democrats and Independents; the right mix of women and men; appropriate selection of voters from cities, villages and suburbs, etc., an right reflection of voting intentions and motivations can be expected. However, if your poll is 75 percent women and 25 percent men, you will have a bad poll.
When it comes to demographics, the matter is relatively basic. The American Community Survey provides a benchmark for the gender, age, income, ethnic and geographic distribution of the nation. Then it gets harder. People don’t vote in neat, proportional patterns. Age, income and education are directly correlated with voter turnout. The higher the number, the more likely you are to vote.
Using data from exit polls, pollsters will raise the percentage of older, wealthier and better educated voters. Of course, this doesn’t always work. The main reason the 2016 polls did poorly is that pollsters failed to see an raise in the number of high school-educated voters, many of whom voted for Trump.
But overall, demographics don’t make much of a difference. Outside of black voters, the preferences of various demographic groups are relatively narrow. In the latest YouGov poll, Trump and Biden had the largest advantage for Trump among people aged 30-44 (plus-21%), and for Biden – 18-29 voters (plus-22%). Black voters had a plus 58 percent for Biden, but their share of the electorate is only 10 percent. No one age group makes up more than 21 percent of voters.
However, partisan differences are enormous. Trump is plus 88 percent for Republicans, while Biden is plus 86 percent for Democrats. These unequal vote ratios make the partisan mix of each poll a major factor in influencing the vote. Oversampling newborn voters by 2 or 3 points would assist Biden, but not much, but assuming too much Democratic turnout would easily give Biden the lead.
Getting the right partisan mix
Voter turnout by party has fluctuated over the last five elections, according to exit polls tracked by exit polls. Roper Center. From an equal showing in 2004 (37% Republican, 37% Democrat) to a high Democratic showing in the 2008 election that ended in the financial crash (39% Democratic, 32% Republican), the trend has been toward more even turnout. Democrats had a 6-point advantage in 2012, 3 points in 2016 and just 1 point in 2020 (37% Democrat, 36% Republican). Given this trend and Biden’s dismal polling numbers, expectations for a Democratic comeback in favor of Obama’s election should not be particularly high.
It’s true that the Republican National Committee is in a mess, and Lara Trump’s claims that the RNC will have the world’s best ballot security program and turnout program should be treated as “I’ll believe it when I see it.” Several state parties are also disaster zones, characterized by destitute leadership and destitute fundraising. But people tend to vote in presidential elections without much prompting. The organizational incompetence of the GOP will cost, but more than 1%. turnout seems unlikely.
Looking at Real clear policy To summarize the polls, polls that show Trump losing tend to oversample Democrats — meaning the percentage of Democrats who are estimated to enter the election is higher than in 2020 exit polls.
The Marist Poll Biden has a 3-point advantage, but assumes a 4-point advantage for Democrats in turnout. March Quinnipiac Poll Biden also had a 3-point lead, assuming a 3-point Democratic lead in turnout. The April survey There was a draw, but the poll assumed that neither side would have an advantage. Morning Consult, Ipsos and TIPP are other polls that show Biden ahead in the last month but do not make their partisan composition public.
Only one of the polls favored Trump CNN poll predicts Republican turnout advantage – and by just one point. The NBC Poll Trump gained 2 points assuming equal turnout. Emerson Trump had a 3-point advantage, assuming a 2-point advantage for Democrats. HarrisX Trump gained 3 points and Democrats also gained a 2-point lead in March. In one of the more surprising results April Kos/Civiqs daily survey gives Trump a 1-point lead, despite a 5-point lead in the Democratic sample.
Several other polls show strange results. Rasmussen is Trump plus-8. On the other hand, Rasmussen had Biden plus 4 in November in a sea of polls with Trump ahead. Every now and then, even a good pollster will get a strange result. CNN has Trump ahead by 6 points, but polls have been problematic.
For Trump, the news is mostly good, with polls showing Biden with an advantage over Democratic voters. What’s even more impressive is that there are polls that assume a Democratic turnout advantage and yet still show Trump leading. Biden is leading in no poll that shows equal turnout. To be sure, the leads and percentage changes are very diminutive. But in a tight race, one percent could be the difference between the White House and the outhouse.
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Dr. Keith Naughton is a director of Silent Majority Strategies, a regulatory and public affairs firm. He is the author of Washington Gold Rush: The Competition for Congressional Earmarks. He is a member of politics and public policy.
“Trump Rally” cover photo by Daniel Scavino Jr.
