In my post yesterday about Herschel Walker, I noted that the GOP candidate’s prospects in Georgia have started to look better in recent days, although the polls have shown mixed results overall. In my opinion, this is a close race. I also highlighted some fairly bullish polls in two other key contests, with Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) leading in a recent Marquette poll and Adam Laxalt slightly ahead in a recent set of Nevada data.
Johnson holding on would be a huge boon to his party’s chances of picking up at least one seat and regaining its majority. Polls in Wisconsin have been notoriously inexact and blue-tinted over the past few national cycles, so any numbers showing a Republican lead seem noteworthy. An internal GOP poll also shows Johnson ahead, as does another recent public poll:
?? NEW Wisconsin Polls by Civiqs
SENATE
(R) Johnson 49% (+1)
(D) Barnes 48%Independent
(R) Johnson 51% (+8)
(D) Barnes 43%
.
GOVERNOR
(D) Evers 49% (+1)
(R) Michels 48%Independent
(R) Michels 50% (+5)
(D) Evers 45%780 LV | D36/R35/I29 | 09/10-13https://t.co/scUv6xypbH
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 15, 2022
Johnson wins by a nose, in a statistically close race (the governor’s race is also deadlocked, according to these numbers). What has improved Johnson’s standing? Perhaps Badger State voters are beginning to learn more about the man Democrats nominated against him. Mandela Barnes is a left-wing radical who called for American capitalism be ‘blocked’ in the service of the green agenda, was ally “defund the police”and helped spark violent riots in Kenosha with his reckless and inexact anti-law enforcement. Wisconsinites can and should hear a lot more of his words on their screens and devices in the coming weeks — a point I made in this FBN interview (which, of course, touched on other issues as well):
.@guypbenson Criticizes Biden’s ‘Lowering’ White House Party: ‘A Tone-Deaf Split Screen’#FoxNews #GuyBensonShow #Biden https://t.co/xJaIdwcJgW
— The Guy Benson Show (@GuyBensonShow) September 15, 2022
Meanwhile, another poll from Florida shows Marco Rubio leading. This race shouldn’t be as close as it seems, and Florida polls have been suspect for years (it’s an organization I’ve never heard of), but the incumbent I want to close a seat in the upper house that cannot be lost:
NEW: @SachsMediaGrp
Governor of Florida
(R) Ron DeSantis 51% (+6)
(D) Charlie Crist 45%Senate FL
(P) Marco Rubio 49% (+3)
(D) Val Demings 46%09/10 | N=600LV https://t.co/NwNadfvxN4 photo:twitter.com/x4SglSkR4x
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 15, 2022
In Ohio, a recent survey of Buckeye State voters also gives JD Vance slender lead in this Senate battle. Polls in Ohio have also been mixed lately, often underestimating Republican support by significant margins. That could be a sign that Vance is in a better position than the “too close for comfort” narrative suggests. This is another race that Republicans absolutely must win:
??NEW RESEARCH FOR THE SENATE BY CIVIQS
OHIO
(R) JD Vance 48% (+3)
(D) Tim Ryan 45%WISCONSIN
(R) Ron Johnson 49% (+1)
(D) Mandela Barnes 48%? September 10-13
? 780 likely voters per state
? 3.7% margin of errorhttps://t.co/Xp58tUUpRv— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 15, 2022
If if if Republicans hold the line in Florida and Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin, they could lose Pennsylvania and still pick up two other Democratic-held seats (likely some combination of AZ/GA/NH/NV) to squeeze out a remnant of the majority. If they win in the currently red seats, their chances of regaining the majority escalate dramatically. As for the general vote, I’ll leave you to play “pick your poll.” The latest Fox results indicate that Democrats taking the lead (44/41) among registered voters (and a tie among most likely voters). Trafalgar’s data paints a different picture:
New #GenericBallot @trafalgar_group #Vote (9/7-9) shows a slight escalate for #RepublicanParty—6% lead:
47.9% #RepublicanParty
42.2% #Dem
9.9% ISee the report: https://t.co/eCBgfPI48j photo: twitter.com/kqK6cQUmga
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 12, 2022
