by Robert Romano
Since 1960, Democrats have won a majority of the popular vote in 10 of the last 16 presidential elections, and through a combination of historic realignment (beginning in the 1930s), presidential props and incumbency advantage, they have also won a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in 11 z of these 16 contests, often with super majorities.
The contemporary history of control of the United States House of Representatives, and therefore the legislative shaping of the society of laws in which we now live, begins in 1932 when Franklin Roosevelt and the Democrats completely crushed Herbert Hoover’s re-election bid, winning 57.4 percent of the popular vote and 42 states to Hoover’s meager 39.6 percent and 6 states.
As a result, Democrats won historic victories in the House of Representatives in 1932winning 97 seats in the same year and reaching 313 seats to the Republicans’ 117 seats.
IN 1936Roosevelt easily won re-election, this time winning 60.8% of the popular vote and 46 states compared to Alf Landon’s 36.5% and 2 states. During, Democrats won another 12 seats after winning several more in the 1934 midtermsreaching a high of 334 seats in the House of Representatives to 88 Republican seats, which were close to extinction.
The 1936 result set the pace for the rest of the century, and Republicans slowly but surely reduced the incumbent’s advantage in subsequent elections, briefly and narrowly taking control of the House in half-year of 1946 and once more in 1952 With Dwight Eisenhower’s landslide victoryQuick lost IN Harry Truman’s victory in 1948 and half-year of 1954appropriately.
Since then, Democrats have retained control of the chamber until semesters 1994 Clinton when there was another change in which Republicans would be able to hold the chamber for 12 consecutive years because the incumbency advantage helped them served as the chamber in 1996 despite Clinton’s re-election. George W. Bush’s victories in 2000 AND 2004 it helped land AND enhance majority.
The factors approaching a presidential year that seem to matter most are the number of seats a party won in elections and the top places in the rankings, as was certainly seen in 1932 and 1936, where the presidential candidate overwhelmingly won the popular vote, this could bode well for the party further down the ballot.
The same phenomenon allowed Eisenhower and the GOP to briefly take control in 1952 after winning 22 seats, Richard Nixon Down win 12 seats in 1972Ronald Reagan get 34 places AND 16 places IN 1980 AND 1984 and respectively George W. Bush Down win 3rd place in 2004.
Republicans could have achieved even more, but the apparent splitting of seats by voters prevented them from achieving supermajorities in the 20th century, where, despite Eisenhower’s great victories in 1952. 1956Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1980 and 1984, many voters still favored voting for their Democratic congressmen and women, even though Reagan and the GOP notably won the U.S. Senate in 1980, winning 12 seats.
In legislative terms, the results speak for themselves. Thanks to supermajorities in the 1930s, Democrats were able to introduce the New Deal, Social Security, the National Labor Relations Board, unemployment insurance, and farm subsidies. Again in the 1960s, with enormous majorities in Congress, Democrats succeeded in securing passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and especially after Lyndon Johnsona crushing victory in 1964to establish Medicare and Medicaid.
On the other hand, Republican victories in 1980, 2000, and 2016 led to increased defense spending and tax cuts, but failed to achieve much else on a partisan basis. George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election and Donald Trump’s 2016 victory stand out as legislative majority that were essentially wastedespecially in the latter case, where despite control of both houses, the Republican Party Congress was unable to even fulfill Trump’s pre-election promise to build a wall on the southern border (Trump would have to resort to declaring a state of emergency and reprogramming some of the security spending to do something ).
In a similar vein, Joe Biden’s bare victory in 2020 was pyrrhic, winning only 222 seats in the House AND 50-50 tie in the Senate — that’s the weakest majority for a Democratic president since Grover Cleveland — and legislatively he’s accomplished almost nothing. Yes, 2021 saw a $1 trillion helicopter stimulus and a so-called Inflation Reduction Act that included billions in green energy subsidies, but the spending was only transient. Democrats failed to pack the Supreme Court, pass the Green New Deal, take over H.R. 1 federal elections, or create the states of DC or Puerto Rico, despite Republican concerns about these issues.
The lesson is that majorities matter, and especially how massive that majority is. For example, now it’s Republicans narrowly retained a majority of 217 to 213 At home. Members have already unseated one speaker, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), in 2023, and now they are willing to try to do it again against Mike Johnson (R-CA), as if it could be expected that in this way you can achieve much more with a diminutive majority and no control of the Senate or the White House. It’s a fantasy.
Just like in 2011, so in 2023. Republicans have successfully used the debt ceiling to achieve budget sequestration, which will limit the so-called discretionary spending. In both cases, this was all that could be achieved with just one house and, frankly, not a very enormous majority.
If Republicans want better legislative outcomes, it’s plain math. Presumptive Republican Party nominee Donald Trump must campaign intensively in Democratic areas AND win the popular vote – and win it so much that it results in a realignment of Congress. WITH Biden is ahead in national popular polls Such a historic opportunity has been emerging for almost a year now.
All tearful hand-wringing aside, in the context of meaningful legislation that stands the test of time, nothing else matters.
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Robert Romano is vice president of public policy at the Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Photo “Donald Trump” by Daniel Scavino Jr. .
