by John R. Lott Jr.
Law enforcement in the United States has broken down. Americans in many parts of the country are seeing products in CVS, Walgreens and Walmart stores are behind plexiglassthat you have to call a clerk to roll down your window and then wait while you read and look at the different packages. People know that these companies have no choice. Americans know that crime is on the rise, but the real collapse of law enforcement, especially in vast cities, is unprecedented.
AND Gallup survey last November, 92 percent of Republicans and even 58 percent of Democrats thought crime was rising. In a series of surveys from March 2023 to April 2024Rasmussen Reports finds that the percentage of Americans who believe violent crime is getting worse has been remarkably steady — 60 percent to 61 percent. About four times as many believe violent crime is increasing, not getting better.
But the effects of the breakdown may be even greater than most people realize.
FBI data shows arrest rates fell rapidly over the past few years, starting in 2020. In cities with more than 1 million people, the arrest rate for reported violent crimes averaged 41 percent over the 24-year period from 1996 to 2019, but fell to 20.3 percent in 2022 — a 50 percent drop. The lowest arrest rate in the previous 24 years before COVID-19 was 32.6 percent. That’s still 61 percent higher than the rate in 2022.
The arrest rate for murder fell by 37 percent, for rape by 58 percent, for robbery by 50 percent and for aggravated assault by 54 percent.
Even more dramatic is the decline in the arrest rate for property crimes. The average arrest rate for reported property crimes fell from an average of 13 percent over the 25 years from 1996 to 2021 to 4.5 percent — a 64 percent drop. The lowest arrest rate in the previous 24 years, from 1996 to 2019, was 12 percent. The arrest rate in 2022 was still 61 percent below the previous low. The decline in reported thefts, the largest category of property crimes, is dramatic. It falls from an average arrest rate of 14.6 percent to just 3.8 percent — a 75 percent drop.
But things are even worse than these numbers indicate. All these numbers come from an analysis by the FBI reported crime, and because law enforcement has collapsed, the rate at which crimes go unreported has increased. So the effective decline in the crime arrest rate is even greater than these already dismal numbers indicate. Because property crimes are reported less often than violent crimes, the effective arrest rate for all property crimes or all thefts is extraordinarily low.
Reported crimes have fallen for other reasons. Over the past few years, as the number of police officers has fallen due to budget cuts and retirements, police departments across the country—from Charlottesville AND Henrico CountyVirginia, to ChicagoDown Olympia, Washington – has stopped responding to non-urgent 911 calls. People can still go to the police station instead of the police.
If we look at arrests as a percentage of all crimes (reported and unreported), in these vast cities, only 8 percent of all violent crimes and 1 percent of all property crimes result in an arrest.
Moreover, if there has been a simultaneous decline in the number of prosecutions and trials of offenders, as we have seen under many progressive prosecutors, the conviction rate has fallen even more.
In it acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, Kamala Harris claimed to be a tough criminal prosecutor. But she has absolutely no criticism of law enforcement in these gigantic cities controlled by Democrats.
Despite what Democrats and the media continue to claim, the Bureau of Justice Statistics measures total crime (reported and unreported) he rose up under the Biden-Harris administration. Democrats and news media they only rely on the FBI’s reported crime figures, even though more than half of police departments either not reporting any data or only partial data to the FBI.
But here’s the conundrum: Even if Democrats and the media want to rely solely on the FBI, FBI data shows that incarceration rates are falling to unprecedented levels. So how can they ignore the breakdown of law enforcement? Why is it surprising that crime rates are rising?
– – –
John R. Lott Jr. is a RealClearInvestigations contributor focusing on voting rights and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and the Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.
Photo “Criminals Smashing Window” by Lorie Shaull. Licensed under CC BY 2.0.

