Pelosi has four-fifths of the support needed to be re-elected as House leader

UPDATE:She’s back. Pelosi defeated Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) 134-63.

Even after presiding over two massive losses (2010, 2014), failing to come up with a strategy to retake the House, and pulling off a shocking upset in the 2016 presidential election, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is likely to survive a leadership challenge from Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), who has thrown his hat into the ring to try to reset the agenda for House Democrats. It’s not shocking that rural counties are trending Republican, but Donald Trump has galvanized white working-class voters who felt abandoned by the Democratic Party to the point where rural votes have outpaced urban elites. Clinton being a terrible candidate who failed to excite Obama’s coalition didn’t facilitate either. Ryan has tried to show that Democrats are stern about reclaiming what has proven to be the backbone of Obama’s coalition. Democrats are not naive. They know that the votes in rural areas will go to the Republicans, but the idea is to prevent the Republican Party from gaining more votes in those areas, as happened on November 8.

After losing the House in 2010, making miniature gains in 2012, and falling even further in 2014, you might think it was time for a change of captains. Not with the Democrats; Ryan has 12 votes to Pelosi’s 80, with the latter having four-fifths of the support needed to be reelected House Minority Leader (via Appeal):

As of 8:30 p.m. Tuesday, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has secured the public support of at least 80 Democratic members — four-fifths of the total she needs to keep her leadership position.

The Californian, who has been the top Democrat since 2003, faces a challenge from Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, who had just 12 public endorsements as of 8:30 p.m.

The winner of the secret ballot will need to receive a basic majority of the votes, which would be 100 votes if all 198 members of the Democratic Caucus of the 115th Congress are present for the vote on Wednesday.

Rema Rahman, also from Appeal, in addition that the last time someone challenged Pelosi in a leadership election, former Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), received only 43 votes. She added that a third of the 198 House Democrats scheduled to serve in the 115th^t Congress comes from New York, California, and Massachusetts, which only goes to show that this is, in fact, an elite, coastal party. For Democrats, this may require a change, like getting a Rust Belt Democrat in to right the ship, but as we’ve said before, it’s doubtful that Democrats are really stern about winning back the working class or caring about its problems. There’s just too much power, money, and energy in the cities, and they’re going to double down on that strategy. Re-electing Pelosi as House leader would be a sign that these people aren’t stern. On the other hand, Donald Trump and the Republicans need to get the most out of their agenda. Obama will go. No more excuses.

At the same time, Ryan says that we should expect a surprise: