His exceptionin that Hillary hits the magic number of 50 in the last national poll of the Monmouth cycle; something she hasn’t done in any four-way national poll since the crazy AP poll (Clinton +14) in tardy October. After that point, she maintained a steady lead — almost always hovering between 44 and 48 percent support, with Trump generally in the upper 30s to mid-40s. This one looks different, apparently because of a tiny enhance in Hillary’s support among late-declaring voters:
URGENT: Likely National Voters
50% of share capital
DJT 44
GJ4
JS1– 4% changed their mind in the last 10 days due to the latest newshttps://t.co/AY2M87xhsc
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) November 7, 2016
But they don’t suddenly fall in love with Hillary. Her poll rating is awful (37/54), and Trump’s is slightly worse (34/55). Among the general electorate, 27 percent say they are joyful with Donald Trump as the GOP candidate, and two-thirds wish the party would nominate someone else. Just one-third are joyful with Clinton as the Democratic candidate. In miniature, Americans are disappointed with their options this year. Justin previously wrote about an IBD/TIPP poll that shows Trump is slightly aheadwhich could be a gigantic deal because by one measure, it was the most exact poll four years ago. By another measure, most appropriate mainstream pollsters in 2012 Reuters Agency/Ipsos and YouGov. Their final results this cycle? Hillary up four and three, respectively, in line with several other national polls They are landing (Bloomberg, Fox News, CBS, NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo) We’ll soon find out who’s right. As I said earlier in my predictions post, more significant than national trends — as useful as they are — are the statewide polls. Have we learned anything modern in the last 24 hours?
Iowa:I’m looking pretty solid for Trumpeven though one poll had Clinton ahead by one point.
North Carolina: As close as it gets. A fresh NYT/Sienna poll measures a tight tie, with Richard Burr leading in the Senate race. Total ball jumpThe final Quinnipiac poll results give Clinton a two-point lead, with the Senate race tied.
Florida:WITH three non-partisan polls November, Hillary is barely ahead or tied. Two GOP polls give Trump a narrow lead. A Q-poll shows Rubio up 50 points and leading by seven pointsHis average lead is smaller, just under four points.
ohio:Trump is not lagging behind single opinion poll Buckeye State since mid-October, building an average lead of 3.5 points — which for some reason doesn’t include the following data point:
Columbus Dispatch (OH) poll:
KC +1
Portman +21This study essentially confirmed the 2012 result, but no other study gives it an advantage.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 7, 2016
In case you were curious, To arrange questionnaire more or less nailed Ohio’s 2012 results This may be cause for concern in Trump world, but here’s a counterfactual that’s definitely good news for the GOP:
Early voting turnout in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, is down 31% from 2012 levels. photo: twitter.com/Qyb2Mtd1r6
— Reid J. Epstein (@reidepstein) (*50*)November 7, 2016
Trump probably needs to sweep this board and then add more recent/classic blue states. He has a slight lead in the RCP average in Nevadawhere (if you read between the lines) even the state Republican Party thinks he’s been cheated and has fallen a little behind in New Hampshire, where he has momentum. Besides, Team Trump has to hope that the polls are a few points lower in another state that Obama won. Maybe Pennsylvania?Your guess may be as good as the Trump campaign’s. They have apparently stiffened one of their top internal pollsters, and base their final moves on — at least in part — 270toWin’s scenarios:
This will reassure Republicans who fear that ending Trump’s rampage in many states is not based on data:https://t.co/DcHLz20ovN photo:twitter.com/flE5GLRt5X
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 6, 2016
I’ll leave you with another forecast. One more day:
Larry Sabato’s final map:
• #Hillary 322 #Asset 216
• Senate 50/50 https://t.co/lSwGLhCMRM photo: twitter.com/DK0plX74dG— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) November 7, 2016
