Election Day is finally here — and the final poll from the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project doesn’t look good for Donald Trump. It gives Hillary Clinton 90 percent chance defeating the Republican Party candidate in the race for the White House.
Her chances are roughly similar to last week’s, with any Trump victory on Tuesday dependent on an unlikely combination of white, black and Latino turnout in six or seven states, according to a poll released Monday.
The poll showed the former secretary of state leading Trump 45 percent to 42 percent and on track to win 303 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 235, which would put him at 270 votes needed to win.
Trump’s chances hinge on his performance in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio, which were too close to predict when polls closed on Sunday, and Pennsylvania, where Clinton had a slim 3-percentage-point lead. Trump will need to win most of those states for him to win.
Any combination of two losses in the three swing states of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania would almost certainly lead to a Clinton victory. At the same time, Trump must hold on to the traditionally Republican state of Arizona, where the race has tightened, and hope that independent candidate Evan McMullin does not win another Republican stronghold, Utah.
If Trump is to win, he needs more white Republican voters than in 2012, fewer black voters and “smaller than expected growth” in Latino voters, according to the bill.
The project involves surveying 15,000 people from all 50 states and Washington, D.C., each week.
