As early voting results come in, analysts are already filtering down what record turnout means for the presidential candidates. As it stands, Trump is ahead of Romney in key swing states across the country.
One thing to keep in mind when looking at early results is that Democrats like to vote early. They make up the majority of early results, while Republicans always come out robust on Election Day. Democrats overtaking Republicans before Election Day is a normal occurrence that is actually factored into pre-election analysis.
Florida is key to Trump’s victory. So far, reason be confident. Obama beat Romney in early voting by about 177,000 votes, or 3.7 percent. Romney closed the gap on Election Day, losing to Obama by less than one percentage point.
Clinton’s lead in Florida over Trump is currently just 90,000 votes. That’s a huge drop for Clinton and within the range of Romney’s Election Day comeback in 2012. Team Clinton should be worried.
North Carolina is looks similar Trump has overtaken Romney in the Tar Heel State. Last-minute polls showed Clinton ahead, but early results point to Trump. Despite Democrats’ turnout of 1.3 million to Republicans’ 900,000; during the same period in 2012, 125,000 more Republicans voted than Democrats. If trends continue, Trump should win North Carolina.
The analysis is a bit more arduous in Ohio. Clinton’s team has boasted higher turnout so far, but Republicans have pointed to below performance in Democratic strongholds as a sign of Trump’s victory. Cuyahoga County is Ohio’s “blue wall.” Obama amassed a huge lead in the county, which includes Cleveland — a lead that kept the state blue. Early voting saw 253,512 fewer votes than during the same period in 2012, suggesting low Democratic turnout. We also saw lower turnout in the liberal strongholds of Franklin, Hamilton and Summit counties.
Nevada is a state where early results don’t look good for Trump. Record turnout and long lines in Clark County, home to a vast Latino population, have some Republicans concerned. In fact, Trump’s team challenged a delay in closing some polling places in Clark County — a challenge that was promptly dismissed by a judge, citing that all voters followed the rules and were in line before the polls closed. Many are crediting Harry Reid’s work in the state for the high Democratic turnout.
One possible wild card tonight: Michigan. Matt reported a higher-than-expected turnout of white working-class voters in the Wolverine State. The robust showing in working-class western Michigan is surprising and could make for an compelling play. If Trump loses Nevada, he’ll have to wrest the state from Clinton’s “blue fire wall.” Michigan is a potential swing state.
