Despite the pundits, pollsters, bookmakers, political professionals, and financial markets, Donald J. Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States.t President of the United States on Tuesday, and in the end it wasn’t that close. How did that happen?
1. Trump beat Romney, and Hillary underperformed Obama. Trump won, and Hillary lost, many of the states that Obama won and Romney lost in 2012: Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and maybe Michigan. Whether it was because of Trump’s criticism of trade deals, outsourcing, or the loss of manufacturing jobs, or his ability to mobilize disaffected whites, when you analyze the exit polls, they will likely show that Trump has returned to the GOP millions of “Reagan Democrats” of yesterday, working-class Americans whose values are at odds with the progressive sentiments of the coastal elites who run the Democratic Party. Hillary also failed to enthuse and mobilize Obama’s core constituency, including teenage voters, women, and minorities.
2. America voted to change the substance. Trump won because Hillary promised more of the same: preserving Obamacare; amnesty for illegal immigrants; destroying the economy to stop “climate change”; increased employ of executive orders; appointing liberal justices to the Supreme Court; more refugees from failed Muslim states; higher taxes and more regulation. Trump promised to undo the Iran deal, stop illegal immigration, and repeal Obamacare. The American people said, “We are not with her.”
3. History can wait. Ordinary Americans, those who don’t obsessively read Politico, were probably more concerned about Hillary’s endless scandals—Benghazi, the Clinton Foundation, her emails—than about electing the first woman president. On that front, Trump had no greater friends than WikiLeaks and President Obama, whose historic and failed presidency inspired voters to make the change they wanted. As a result, Hillary didn’t even come close to Obama’s historic 2008 tally of more than 69 million votes and 365 Electoral College votes. So far, Hillary has won 59 million votes and 228 Electoral College votes.
4. Polls can’t measure enthusiasm. Before Tuesday, the New York Times gave Hillary an 84% chance of winning the presidency, nine of 11 national polls conducted last week showed Hillary winning, and Hillary had a 3.2% lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling average. What’s more, most polls gave Democrats a lead in retaking the Senate. As Trump won state after state and the GOP held on to several key Senate races—Marco Rubio in Florida, Richard Burr in North Carolina, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Roy Blunt in Missouri, Rob Portman in Ohio and, most surprisingly, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin—it became clear that the polls were flawed and did not measure voter sentiment or Trump’s enthusiasm.
5. America is ready to roll the dice. Continuing its trend of political bipolarity (electing Bill Clinton after Bush 41, Obama after Bush 43), the country that twice elected Barack Obama, a hyperliberal community organizer with no leadership experience, has elected Donald Trump, a politically incoherent billionaire real estate developer and reality TV star with no political experience, and, perhaps just as importantly, given him a Republican-controlled House and Senate. Trump finds himself in the same situation as Obama in 2009: his party controls everything, and he has a historic opportunity to shape the Supreme Court and national policy.
On the Supreme Court, he will immediately replace at least one Supreme Court justice (Mitch McConnell now looks like the genius who blocked Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland) and may receive one or two more nominations. If Trump sticks to his published list of Supreme Court nominees, the Supreme Court will be much more conservative for the next 30 years and could correct the legal mistakes of the last 8 years on Obamacare, marriage, religious liberty, affirmative action, environmental protections, and other issues.
On the policy front, in addition to immigration, Obamacare and trade deals, Trump has a chance to employ executive orders to undo much of Obama’s legacy enacted through executive orders, including the so-called Clean Power Plan to address “climate change,” restroom regulations, onerous employer regulations and stringent government procurement rules.
Trump did America a great favor by keeping the Clintons (and Huma, Podesta, and the rest) out of the White House for a second time. If he does nothing more than appoint a constitutional conservative (or two) to the Court, repeal Obama’s executive orders, and repeal Obamacare, his presidency will be a success. Let’s hope he keeps his campaign promises.
