by Adeline Von Drehle
In the last four years, about 4 million Latinos became eligible to votemaking the Latino population 14.7% of all eligible voters. This increasingly independent cohort is up for grabs, and one conservative Latino-focused PAC is looking to win them over.
The bloc was a key part of the coalition that helped President Joe Biden win the White House in 2020. In 12 of the 13 states with the largest Latino populations, Latinos supported Biden over former President Donald Trump by a landslide. at least two to one. And in nine of the 13 states, the margin was at least three to one. Only in Florida was Biden’s lead less than two to one.
Biden didn’t accomplish any extraordinary feat with those numbers — Latinos have historically voted Democratic. But recent polls suggest Latino voters are increasingly shifting away from Democratic candidates — and toward independents. Pew Research survey in July showed that 36% of all registered Latinos support Biden, 36% support Trump, while 24% support independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
“What’s been happening on the Democratic side is that more and more people…[were] “by choosing more independents,” Clarissa Martinez, a voting expert with the activist group UnidosUS, told NPR.[That] “has taken support away from the traditional 60% level enjoyed by Democrats, but this has not translated directly into support for Republicans.”
Now, as the country heads into November at breakneck speed, the Koch-funded Libre Advocacy Group is trying to convince Latino voters to support the Republican Party at the ballot box.
Libre is “the only game in town when it comes to the center-right,” President Daniel Garza said. The PAC operates in 15 different states and employs door-knocking to identify Latinos who share its ideals and “pursue them,” Garza said.
Libre is supporting dozens of GOP congressional candidates, including in key battleground states Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The candidates they support don’t necessarily campaign on Latino-centric platforms, but that’s not the point. Libre is interested in winning support for candidates who align with “American principles,” Garza tells RCP.
“We support candidates who will defend individual liberty, limited government, private property — the kinds of principles that have made America strong and will continue to make America strong,” Garza said. “We believe that when policies are focused on making sure that everyone rises up, Latinos will automatically rise up. We are not asking for special or exclusive policies that are targeted only at Latinos.”
Libre has identified millions of like-minded Latinos by canvassing, organizing events and running classes in competitive districts year-round, even in non-election years. Their database now consists of seven million Latino voters, an accomplishment Libre spokesman Wadi Gaitan says they’ve achieved through consistency.
“We don’t parachute into neighborhoods. We do community events throughout the year, not just in election years, but also in off years,” Gaitan told RCP. “It’s not just a 120-day sprint to try to introduce ourselves and tell them to vote a certain way. It’s a relationship that we’ve built over the years in these communities.”
Libre hopes to capitalize on disaffected Latino voters and their growing antipathy to Democratic policies—especially economic ones. When Latino voters were were asked to rank the three most vital problemsFifty-four percent of respondents said “inflation/rising cost of living,” while 44 percent said “jobs and the economy.” The next three answers were “health care” (33 percent), “crime/gun violence” (29 percent) and “lack of affordable housing/high rents” (25 percent). Three of the top five issues for Latino voters were related to costs and the economy.
Libre is trying to make economic anxiety synonymous with the Democratic Party. One way they’re doing that is through their “BideNOmics” campaign, in which Libre team members set up in Spanish supermarkets and restaurants in competitive neighborhoods and talk to customers about policies they believe have led to rising inflation, such as overspending and failing to balance budgets.
Economic concerns “have provided an opportunity for the Republican Party,” Garza said. Republican politicians, he said, simply need to “show up, engage with the Latino community and say, ‘These are the ideas that are better than what you’ve seen, and you need to vote for the people who are going to reverse this trajectory.’”
Libre candidates are hammering these economic messages home. Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania has He opposed “red tape” and abuses by the Biden administration, which claims Pennsylvania has a forceful economy only because of government interference. In battleground state Nevada, GOP candidate Sam Brown is trying to fend off Sen. Jacky Rosen’s reelection bid with a Libre playbook.
“Jacky Rosen has supported Bidenomics and Kamala Harris since day one — voting with Joe Biden 98% of the time — and Nevadans continue to suffer under her hyper-partisan loyalty that puts her party above the people she claims to represent,” Brown said.
While headlines are dominated by the presidential race — a contest Libre is not entering because it lacks the infrastructure to support a national candidate, Garza says — the Senate and House races will determine the effectiveness of the next person to move into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
It’s Libre’s gamble that they’ve identified congressional candidates who can win with the facilitate of Latino voters. And if getting Republican Latino voters to the polls in November changes the outcome of the presidential race, so be it.
“I guess you could say that if we encourage people to vote in the Senate and congressional elections on the Republican ticket, that would be beneficial to the presidential candidate,” Garza said.
Trump may need facilitate. While his poll numbers against Biden have been impressive – one NYT/Siena College Poll put Trump ahead of Biden, with 50% support among Latino voters, compared to Biden’s 41% — a surge in enthusiasm for Kamala Harris’ candidacy since she took over as the Democratic nominee.
Voto Latino told NPR that There was an enhance of 221% in voter registrations in the days after Harris announced her candidacy. In response, Libre and his candidates were sure to emphasize the fact that Harris was deeply involved in the economic policies that they say have so badly hurt Latinos.
“The race has been shaken up, the candidates may have changed, but the policies haven’t changed,” Garza said. “I mean, Vice President Harris has promoted every policy that has created the highest inflation in four decades, which has created devastation for working Latino families.”
Research shows that Latino voters are less likely to hear about political campaigns than their black or white counterparts, making a PAC like Libre all the more influential. In a sphere where liberal messages have historically dominated — or been absent altogether — the conservatism espoused by Libre and the candidates Libre supports could hit home.
“There was a battle for Latino votes like never before on both sides,” Garza said. “I just think the GOP did a better job with its candidates and its people, connecting with Latino communities and telling the story of where they stand and how much they align with them, like on economic issues. Latinos have been turned off by the Democratic Party.”
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Adeline Von Drehle is the author of Real Clear Wire.
Photo: “Latinos for Trump” by Voice of America.
