“It’s over. Trump can’t win.” That’s the narrative that the Clinton campaign and mainstream media have been pushing relentlessly over the past few days. The problem with that narrative is that it’s a blatant lie. This election is far from over. Not even close!
Let’s take a look at this electoral map. Remember, Trump needs to win 270 electoral votes to become the next president of the United States. On the other hand, he needs to keep Hillary Clinton at 269 electoral votes, because with a Republican-led House of Representatives, a 269-269 tie would likely also result in a Trump presidency.
Trump’s base electoral vote tally is 158. Let’s say Clinton’s base electoral vote tally is 239 — we’ll generously give her Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), New Mexico (5), and three of Maine’s four electoral votes.
If this is a enduring reality, Trump needs to win the following states to get 265 electoral votes (in order from easiest to most arduous):
Utah
Utah has just become a battleground state, as independent candidate Evan McMullin has been gaining ground recently. It’s now a three-candidate race. The latest poll, conducted Oct. 23 and 24 by Heat Street/Rasmussen, gave Trump a narrow 32-29-28 lead over McMullin and Clinton, respectively.
Georgia
Georgia is close, but Trump has led in 14 of the last 15 polls since early August (and tied in another poll). While his lead is within the margin of error, unless Clinton beats Clinton, Trump should win here safely.
Iowa
Iowa is one of several states that are suffering from a lack of polling. The latest Quinnipiac poll, released Thursday — the first public poll in three weeks! — showed Trump and Clinton tied at 44 percent. Iowa is poised to become a virtual ghost state this election cycle, and without more data, it’s challenging to say which way Iowa is preparing to tip.
ohio
Five recent polls in Ohio show Trump tied with or ahead of Clinton. He has done well there since tardy August. While the race is still very close, Trump’s appeal to the working class will likely support him win the blue-collar state, something Mitt Romney failed to do.
Arizona
There aren’t many polls in Arizona, but the latest Monmouth poll, conducted Oct. 21-24, showed Trump leading by 1 percent, 46-45. Arizona is typically a “Republican state,” but polls have consistently shown that to be a loose outcome.
Florida
I have never seen such a blatant attempt by the mainstream media to call a state that polls are within the margin of error. This is absolutely crazy to me. Florida is one of the most swing states, and yet commentator after commentator is declaring the race in the Sunshine State over. Absurd. It is very close. Clinton has never led by more than five points in any poll since August, and in the latest Bloomberg poll, Trump is leading by two points, 45-43. Trump could easily win Florida.
Nevada
Nevada is notoriously arduous to poll, which may support explain some of the wild swings between polls — two credible polls conducted last week during the same period had Clinton at +7 and Trump at +3. Still, Nevada is a state Trump likely needs to win, and he appears to be on the verge of doing so.
North Carolina
North Carolina has been heavily scrutinized because it’s one of the more high-profile battleground states. Clinton has led in 17 of the last 18 polls in North Carolina dating back to tardy September, but she’s never led by more than six points, and she’s never led by more than four points in October. That’s very close.
If Trump manages to do all this, it will give him a chance 265 electoral votes. It is within three points of each of the states listed.
That leaves us with three states (and a district):
Pennsylvania
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, it would give him a chance to lose one of the smaller battleground states, like Nevada or Arizona. That would be a huge win. And the Trump campaign clearly believes it can win Pennsylvania. It seemed to have abandoned the state in the first week of October, but that turned out to be a ruse, and it has spent nearly $3 million on television ads in the past two weeks. The last four polls have Clinton leading by four to seven points, but Trump is still very much in contention here. If a few things go his way, he could win.
Colorado
Like Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign believes it can win Colorado and has invested significant resources in the state. There’s a reason for that. The latest poll, released last week by Remington Research, a Republican polling firm, shows Clinton leading by just two points, 45-43. The poll follows an October spending blitz in which the Trump campaign spent nearly $2 million on television ads. Colorado is in play.
New Hampshire and Maine’s Second Congressional District
We combine New Hampshire’s 2nd congressional district and Maine (ME-2), which is worth one electoral vote, because of their demographic similarities and because together they would give Donald Trump 270 electoral votes. The latest poll in ME-2 had Clinton ahead by one point, 38-37. The latest poll in New Hampshire had Clinton ahead by four points, 46-42.
As you can see, even if we accept the conventional wisdom that polls are always right—they are not—and that pollsters have a perfect understanding of how the 2016 electorate will be distributed—they do not—in an election in which every self-proclaimed pundit and career politician has been wrong from the start, Trump still has a very reasonable, if arduous, path to victory. Even in that scenario, it would be fair to say he has a 20 percent or better chance of winning on November 8th.
What if we question certain assumptions?
Imagine that these turnout models overstate Democratic turnout by a few percentage points, overestimate Hillary Clinton’s turnout, and produce numbers that would exceed President Obama’s historic turnout in 2008 and 2012. If we examine the crosstabulations of some of these polls, we will certainly see evidence that this is the case.
What if the polls are even slightly wrong?
What if there is a real Bradley effect at work in Donald Trump’s case that is driving polling results, i.e. a statistically significant number of Trump voters are afraid to publicly announce, even to an anonymous pollster over the phone, that they are Trump voters, fearing a public backlash, especially after the radical left’s aggressive attempts to intimidate and silence Trump voters, using charged language and even threats of violence? Are we really sure that this is impossible?
These factors combined could be worth two to four percentage points. Maybe more.
Suddenly, Trump could have secured 265 electoral votes and be within reach of Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, needing to win just one state to become president.
We’re not saying the polls are wrong. They could be very right. But the bottom line is that even if the polls are 100 percent right, Trump is still a stone’s throw away from winning this election. What if they’re wrong? What if the turnout models are making flawed assumptions that are unwittingly driving down Trump’s support? Well, then we should be having a very different conversation.
Conventional wisdom says Trump is finished. We’re betting otherwise.
Frank Cannon has worked in public policy for more than 30 years. He is president of the American Principles Project. Follow him on Twitter @FrankCannonAPP.
Jon Schweppe is the communications director for the American Principles Project. Follow him on Twitter @JonSchweppe.
