Paul Ryan’s approval ratings plummet as more GOP voters say Trump best represents their view of the party

Justin wrote about the hostility Trump supporters met with at a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, for House Speaker Paul Ryan. There were chants of “Paul Ryan sucks,” but is this an isolated incident? I mean, is this just a representation of Trump supporters in the area? No—not really. The latest polls show Ryan’s approval ratings have collapsed, dropping 28 points… in a week. The YouGov poll had some fascinating points about Ryan, Trump, and the mounting tensions that will seemingly erupt into civil war after the election is over.

Allahpundit noted that Ryan is getting the Ted Cruz treatment from his own side, refusing to campaign with Trump even though he hasn’t withdrawn his support, which rightly leaves some people wondering why anyone would simply stop supporting Trump this behind schedule in the game. For starters, the Access Hollywood tape isn’t a dealbreaker for many Republican voters, but it is a tape of the nearly a quarter of independents Trump needs to win over to win this election. Another fascinating finding in the crosstabulations for Ryan is that most Republicans, despite their growing dislike for him, see him as the leader of the Republican Party, not Trump:

You might expect most Republicans to say Trump now that we’re a month away from Election Day. No — it’s Ryan, narrowly, reflecting either deep ideological ambivalence to the right of the nominee or a growing resignation that Trump will lose and Ryan will be the party’s leader the next day. Interestingly, most Democrats and independents also say Ryan, not Trump, is the party’s leader. This is especially odd among Democrats, because you might think they’d want to push the idea that the deeply unpopular Trump is the face of the GOP, not the mildly unpopular Ryan. Perhaps it’s a result of Hillary Clinton spending the past three months telling the country that Trump doesn’t represent the Republican mainstream, a talking point that’s infuriating other Democrats because it absolves Republicans of responsibility for Trump’s worst excesses. If the GOP holds the Senate, that will go some way to explaining why.

Well, just a second, how is it possible that Ryan is seen as the GOP frontrunner, but most Republicans believe Trump’s views best reflect their own vision of the party? In fact, a up-to-date Bloomberg poll has Gov. Mike Pence as the person GOP voters would like to see as the face of the party, followed by Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz. Ryan is fourth on that list:

Asked in latest Bloomberg Politics poll who should be the face of the party in the country if Hillary Clinton wins, likely voters who are Republicans or have similar views have divided up a list of five options.

A majority, 27 percent, chose vice presidential candidate Mike Pence. Trump got 24 percent, ahead of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with 19 percent, House Speaker Paul Ryan with 15 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 10 percent.

[…]

When asked which leader better represents their view of what the Republican Party should stand for, 51 percent of likely voters who are Republican or lean Republican picked Trump, 33 percent chose Ryan and 15 percent said they were unsure.

The data clearly shows that a significant portion of Trump’s supporters are fully behind the candidate. They believe he can deliver on his promise of a greater nation. Yet only 38 percent of them say they would remain true and follow his future endeavors if he doesn’t win,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey ahead of Wednesday’s final debate. “If he were to lose, our data suggests his standing would weaken.”

Trump’s withering popularity among the party faithful could be another sign that his leadership will not be welcomed, especially since his record on the issue pales in comparison to previous candidates.

In the latest Bloomberg Politics poll, Trump’s approval rating among likely voters who are or have been Republicans was 76 percent, up from 81 percent in behind schedule September. Mitt Romney, the last Republican candidate, had a favorable rating of 91 percent in a Bloomberg poll in September 2012.

I still doubt the Trump wing of the GOP will fall apart overnight. If Trump loses, the Never Trump wing and the establishment will start acting like “I told you so,” which is ridiculous. We don’t need that after November 8th^tThe party needs a long, detailed, and painful discussion about reconstruction — and Trump supporters will have to be part of it. On the one hand, Paul Ryan is losing popularity but is seen as the party’s leader. Trump appears to be losing popularity, even though his popularity is significantly higher than Ryan’s, but he is not seen as the GOP leader. Yet most GOP voters believe he best represents their views of the party. It’s a tribal view of the party that seems ripe for hostility, especially if Trump loses in November.