One reason to be concerned about Donald Trump’s continued decline in support is pollsand a sizable group of GOP elected officials who broke ranks with their candidate after the offensive audio recordings were released last week, the brittle unity of the Republican party has irrevocably broken down — likely dooming the entire party in November. (Many unsupported lawmakers at the time re-approved Trump, some major donors report request for a refund). That concern remains at the forefront of many Republicans’ minds, with whispers circulating about internal, aggregate ballot numbers cratering over the past weekHere’s a well-informed Capitol Hill producer on Fox News:
GOPers nervous about Senate: ‘We’ve seen a complete collapse of generic voting,’ senior GOP source says ‘It’s going to be tough to hold’
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 12, 2016
For what it’s worth, I’ve heard similar things, in that House Democrats are more confident about making gains,in double digitseven if internal statistics still show they are shy of seriously competing to hand the gavel to Nancy Pelosi. On the Senate side, have close races begun to slip away from Republicans, who have done a remarkable job of keeping things very close so far? Not really. Or not Alreadyat least. A quick overview: In ohioeven with polls showing Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump, Rob Portman a considerable advantage remains unmoved. Liberals were excited about several more demanding research IN Floridabut Marco Rubio is leading seven AND eight points in the two most recent polls of the race (which were in the field before Trump’s taping and the subsequent debate). In the CBS News poll Pennsylvania showing Trump sliding into the abyss (down eight points), Pat Toomey was tied with his Democratic rival; in another Keystone State poll, Toomey led by four points. The lead in that race remains skinny as a razor. North Carolina Richard Burr is outperforming both Donald Trump and his party’s embattled GOP governor, even as Republicans I spoke with worry about his passive approach to the campaign. Conservatives hope that drawing attention to ACLU’s far-left record Burr’s opponent will push him over the top in a red-purple state. Can you imagine if a conservative candidate opposed the creation of a sex offender registry?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU2IBdCj9Lw
Every survey in Nevada There are Republicans in the Senate race Joe Heck in the lead Harry Reid’s hand-picked successor, but that was before the “pussy-grabbing” controversy erupted, prompting Heck to move away from Trump in delicate of the state’s moderate electorate, but annoying some of his supporters. Missourimeanwhile, it’s a scarce battleground where Trump is run forward Senate candidate, incumbent Senator Roy Blunt. Republican is still ahead of usbut it is too close for convenience:
Missouri (Monmouth, 10/9-11)
46% for Trump
Clinton 41%
Johnson 5%Senate
Blunt (R) 46%
Kander (O) 44%https://t.co/4AlYXfwPt8— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) October 12, 2016
Blunt’s campaign and allies have slammed his opponent, calling him potential stamp for Hillary Clinton, who filled the airwaves with ads on this topic. Indiana Republicans continue to feel the wind at their backs as fresh revelations about pro-Obamacare Democrat and current D.C. lobbyist Evan Bayh make him look like more suspicious and less truthful than ever:
Evan Bayh met several times with executives from his future employer during the final months of his term in the U.S. Senate — which is a direct contradiction of what his campaign has been saying in recent weeks. Bayh landed a lucrative job at private equity giant Apollo Global Management shortly after leaving office in January 2011. In the months since, he had campaigned against a tax raise on interest on earnings and provisions of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act that would have hurt the bottom lines of companies like Apollo. The timing of his fresh job prompted IndyStar to ask Bayh’s campaign about about a half-dozen taxpayer-funded trips Bayh took to New York City in the second half of 2010. Such a flurry of travel was unusual for Bayh—he hadn’t used taxpayer money to travel to New York since 2002. In response to IndyStar inquiries, the campaign said in early September that Bayh did not meet with anyone from Apollo during those trips. It turns out that was not the case. The Associated Press reported Saturday that Bayh spent three nights at the New York residence of an Apollo executive and met twice with the company’s CEO, Leon Black. The report was based on Bayh’s previously undisclosed schedule for 2010.
It appears that Bayh voted for legislation while he was in power that would have directly benefited the company that turned around and paid him a windfall when he retired — and that he lied about meeting with top executives at that company. New financial disclosure forms show that Bayh hit the lottery from cashing out after leaving the people of the Hoosier State. Here’s a fresh, hard-hitting ad from the NRSC against “Bayh’s Rescuewhom they call “a salesman, not a senator”:
Meanwhile, don’t look now, but are we sure Wisconsin is off the board? A recent Loras College poll shows Republican Ron Johnson ahead of Russ Feingold by five points (a significant exception, even though the same poll shows a clear lead for Hillary), but the latest Marquette poll also shows very fierce competition. Hmm:
Wisconsin U.S. Senate Race:
46% turnout
44% Johnson
4% Anderson#MULawPoll— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 12, 2016
I still have more faith in the NRSC decision reduce your investment in this race than any other handful of polls, but it’s worth noting that the Marquette pollster is highly respected, and this result comes from the same batch of data that measured Clinton’s hold convenient advantage in the state. Given all this information, it’s fair to say that while Trump’s struggles and partisan discord could take a grave toll on his health in a matter of weeks, Republicans’ chances of holding the Senate haven’t gone up in smoke yet. Stay tuned for more data in the next week or two. I’ll leave you with one of Johnson’s positive ads:
