by Salena Zito
The prevailing belief in the Democratic Party is that abortion will again be a major issue against Republicans in this year’s election cycle, just as it was in 2022 – and that this time it will not only cost the GOP a majority in the US Senate, but also give Democrats have an advantage in retaining the presidency and taking back the House of Representatives.
Abortion rights hurt Republicans’ chances in 2022 when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the elimination of the constitutional right to abortion after almost 50 years; a decision that changed American politics this year, benefiting Democrats who were on track for a painful defeat in the midterm elections.
Last week, President Biden put the issue back in the spotlight when he argued at a pro-choice rally in Florida that Trump had “played away” women’s freedoms across the country with his three picks for the U.S. Supreme Court.
Biden said it is women’s voices that have the political power to oppose restrictions they may face in their states. “When you do this, Donald Trump and extreme MAGA Republicans will learn a valuable lesson: Don’t mess with the women of America,” he said.
Earlier this month, Trump said on Truth Social that abortion should be left to the states afterRoe era. “The states will make the decision by vote or by legislation or maybe both, and whatever they decide has to be the law of the land,” he said. “It will be different in many states. Many of them will have a different number of weeks, or some will be more conservative than others, and that’s what it will be. Ultimately, everything depends on the will of the people.”
Trump is right that “many states will be different.” As of 2022, 14 states, all Republican-led, have enacted recent restrictions on abortion, essentially banning it at all stages.
However, several other states, through vote, executive order, or legislative action, have maintained a woman’s legal right to abortion services – including three critically vital states: Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The redoubts in the Rust Belt will likely decide who will be the next president of the United States and which party will have the majority in the Senate.
It’s up to the current Republican Party Senate candidates, Bernie Moreno in Ohio and David McCormick in Pennsylvania (Michigan’s primary elections won’t be held until August), to cope. But are these headwinds as mighty as Democrats assume?
“The truth is simply that McCormick cannot take away abortion rights in Pennsylvania,” said Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania, adding: “The status quo in Pennsylvania is currently where these protections are in place and it should undo them.” This would require significant action by the state.”
This will be very tough when dealing with Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is unequivocally in favor of protecting Pennsylvania’s abortion law, as well as a majority of Democrats in the Legislature, Borick explained.
“I think Democrats want voters to see a direct and imminent threat of a Republican win and a change to more restrictive policies, whether in Pennsylvania or elsewhere,” Borick explained. “They hope voters will focus on this. Let me repeat: does this translate into real, direct threats in the context of politics? I guess it’s not that simple.”
In January, at a campaign event in Philadelphia, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. whose own position regarding Roe has evolved over the yearsstated that the U.S. Supreme Court is a “right-wing Supreme Court (that) has torn away 49 years of women’s rights,” adding that “women’s rights are also on the ballot in this race.”
McCormick said in a statement that he is pro-life and opposes a national abortion ban: “In Pennsylvania, the current law supported by both Republicans and Democrats means that abortion is legal for 24 weeks,” he noted.
McCormick’s campaign spokeswoman Elizabeth Gregory added that McCormick agreed with Trump’s statement about decisions best made by individual states.
Paul Sracic, a political science professor at Youngstown State University, says in Ohio that it would facilitate Democrats to gain an advantage in the Buckeye State if Republicans pushed for a nationwide abortion ban: “Trump seems to understand this afterDobbs – abortion was a lost cause for the GOP and he stated that if elected, he would not sign such a ban,” he said.
“But making abortion an issue in a state that currently provides more protection for abortion rights than anything the Supreme Court offers Roe seems a bit counterintuitive,” Sracic added.
Last November, Ohio voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment that guarantees women the right to access abortion. The referendum wasn’t even close, with 57 percent passing, establishing a constitutional right to abortion and rejecting laws passed by the Republican-majority Legislature limiting access.
This result reassured Democrats, but at the same time, the referendum may have made abortion a less vital issue for both Democratic and Republican candidates in Ohio. At least that’s what Bernie Moreno hopes. But Sherrod Brown has a different idea: The three-term incumbent is trying to put abortion at the center of his re-election campaign.
“Brown sees that if he can win the votes of those who supported enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, they can recreate something close to his 2018 victory map, when he won counties in northeastern Ohio that heavily supported the GOP direction,” Sracic said.
According to the RealClearPolitics Average, Trump led Ohio there by 12 percentage points.
Ohio is also dominated by Republicans who do not vote; they hold the office of governor, attorney general, and the legislature has a GOP majority. Brown first won the Senate seat in 2012, riding Barack Obama’s mantle and carrying him to victory, but that was the last time a Democratic candidate carried Ohio. All of this means that to remain in office, Senator Brown would need a significant number of ticket splitters. As soon as Moreno won the Republican Senate primary in March, national and state Democrats began trying to sway voters in that direction. They took to social media and ran an ad proclaiming that a vote for Moreno over Brown was a “vote for a nationwide abortion ban.”
Will independent voters and pro-choice Republicans be swayed by this proposal? It may depend on whether they believe it. “The fact is that Congress is very unlikely to pass such a ban even if Republicans retain control of the House and take back the Senate,” Sracic said. “There is also some question as to whether Congress has the authority under the Constitution to enact such a ban.”
Michigan voters, like their Ohio neighbors, approved a comprehensive state constitutional amendment in November 2022 guaranteeing the right to abortion and other reproductive health services. Just a few months later, it was adopted with over 55% of the votes Roe was knocked over.
Former Republican congressman Mike Rogers, one of several Republicans running in Michigan’s primary for an open Senate seat (and the only one to win Trump’s endorsement), is staunchly pro-life. But to neutralize the issue, Rogers emphasized that he also respects the will of Michigan voters.
“Michiganians spoke out loud in 2022 and this is a settled issue in our state,” Rogers said, adding: “I will not take any position as their voice in Washington that is contrary to the Michigan Constitution.”
By framing their positions this way, Republicans like Rogers and Moreno are trying to walk a narrow line. By trying to achieve two things at once – inoculating themselves against Democratic Party attacks that will strip women of their rights while not discouraging their pro-life supporters – they may achieve neither.
Professor Borick tells RCP that while Democrats’ claim that Republican congressional candidates will take away your reproductive rights isn’t actually true, federal and state laws and lawmakers are often “confused in voters’ minds.”
And Trump’s statement that this is a state issue underscores the point.
“I think Democrats want voters to see a direct and imminent threat of a Republican win and a change to more restrictive policies, whether in Pennsylvania or elsewhere,” Borick said. “They hope voters will focus on this. Let me repeat: does this translate into real, direct threats in the context of politics? It’s not that straightforward.” But it might be good policy.
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Salena Zito is a reporter for the Washington Examiner, a contributor to the Wall Street Journal, and co-author of the book “The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics.”
“United States Supreme Court” photo by Sunira Moses. CC BY-SA 3.0.
