One benefit of Donald Trump not being crushed by Hillary Clinton is the impact on so-called lower-level elections.
At a time when more and more voters are choosing one side of the ballot from top to bottom – either Republican or Democratic – many Republican Senate campaigns have spent significant time, effort and money developing tactics that would allow voters to vote for Clinton and then return to the Senate and vote Republican.
The current Senate is 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats. Remember, this is a zero-sum arrangement; each current Republican seat is a two-seat swap. If, say, incumbent Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson were to lose to former Sen. Russ Feingold, the split would change from +8 (54-46) to +6 (53-47).
At the beginning of the election cycle, Democrats did a Ren and Stimpy elated dance because they were confident they would regain control of the Senate on January 3, 2017.
Now? Not so much.
Take Ohio, for example. Incumbent Republican Rob Portman was considered one of the most vulnerable senators seeking reelection. Running against former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland (and a former congressman representing Marietta, Ohio 45750), Portman had an uphill battle to keep his seat.
Now, 39 days before Election Day, Portman’s race is, as we say, off the board. It’s now designated “Safe R.”
I don’t have access to internal polls, but looking out the polling window, it seems that at least part of this is due to the fact that Donald Trump maintains a two-point lead in RealClearPolitics polls in Ohio.
My point is that as far as Rob Portman’s campaign is concerned, it doesn’t matter whether Trump holds on to win Ohio’s electoral votes or Hillary Clinton rebuilds him. Since Trump won’t be buried, there will probably be enough Republicans who will come out and vote to give Portman a brief election night.
The RCP Senate average for Ohio is Portman +13, and the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee long ago folded its cots and tents and left Strickland to fend for himself. According to analysis by the University of Virginia Center for Politics by Larry Sabato, the current prospects look like this:
Democrats (Unelected, Trending D, Likely D, Safe D): 47
Republicans (Unelected, R, Probable, and Safe): 49
Four seats are uncertain: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Nevada.
Of those four states, Nevada’s only current senator is a Democrat – retired Senator Harry Reid.
Indiana — one of the unknowns — has Republican Todd Young running against former Gov. and Sen. Evan Bayh. When Bayh entered the race, Democrats put him in the pick-up column, but incumbent Gov. Mike Pence is running for vice president of the United States, which should draw a enormous number of Republican voters who may or may not have been motivated before Trump chose Pence.
The only recent public poll shows Bayh leading by four percentage points, but Trump/Pence is ahead of Clinton/Kaine in Indiana by seven percentage points.
If Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election, Senator Tim Kaine will become president of the Senate on January 20. If the party split ends in a 50-50 tie, Kaine will cast the tie-breaking vote so Democrats can hold the chamber.
“Stop, smart aleck,” I hear you say. “If Kaine has to give up his seat to become vice president, wouldn’t that create a vacancy, and the division would be 50 Rs, 49 Ds, and one vacancy?” No, because Kaine would give up his seat, giving Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliff the freedom to name a successor, who would be sworn in during the lame duck session. That would allow Kaine to begin planning his up-to-date duties and give that newcomer a seniority boost over any newcomer who isn’t sworn in by January 3.
There will likely be some surprises on election night, but one of them would not occur if Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate.
On the Secret Decoder Ring today: Link to Larry Sabato’s Senate races page and RealClearPolitics poll page. Mullfoto is a sarcastic reference to New Yorkers that non-New Yorkers will appreciate.
