Of course, this is just one model that changes from time to time, but this development is worth noting because it was widely believed that Senate Republicans would face an uphill battle to maintain their majority, regardless of who the GOP presidential nominee was. When Trump’s numbers collapsed In early August, the upper chamber seemed doomed. But now, with Hillary on the decline — and the party’s incumbent senators and candidates far outperforming Trump — it looks like it’s growing chance that Mitch McConnell could retain the title of majority leader if Congress calls an election next year:
It looks like the GOP could hold on to the Senate. Our forecast says they now have a slight advantage. https://t.co/sqizXhuqpc photo:twitter.com/gIGBSLyPX8
— Upshot (@UpshotNYT) September 15, 2016
New Monmouth Poll Shows Trump Leading Iowa by 8 Points, Chuck Grassley Opening Up Dominant Position 17 point lead over his Democratic rival, confirming the trend that these lower-tier elections are shifting toward the red. Republicans are currently heavily or partially favored in target races in Arizona, Missouri, Iowa, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina — with the Tar Heel state perhaps the most uncertain of the bunch. Marco Rubio’s race may still be marginally competitive, but he has firmly placed some daylight between him and his usual empty-suit-adorned opponent. Assuming the Illinois and Wisconsin seats are already off the table, that leaves four uncertain choices: Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Democrats are favored in the Hoosier state, but as we reported earlier this week, the race has recently become much closer. In Nevada, Harry Reid’s chosen surrogate was not leading in single opinion poll race, even if it remains competitive in all of them. Pennsylvania is a spotless sweep, as embattled incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey is neck and neck with a Democrat in the race; that could end up being Donald Trump’s final lead in Keystone. Toomey is ahead of Trump, but he needs the front runners for the ticket to be fairly close, not overwhelming. For the sake of argument, let’s say Joe Heck wins Nevada, but Evan Bayh holds on in Indiana and Toomey gets trimmed. Control of the Senate could fall to New Hampshire, where Kelly Ayotte is clinging to a razor-thin average lead. Jeff Bechtel of America Rising says three events There is some positive news for Ayotte in the Granite State:
(1) The latest NBC/WSJ/Marist poll gives Republicans eight point lead — an unusual result for now, but certainly welcomed by Ayotte’s campaign staff.
(2) Democrat Maggie Hassan has grappled with questions about Hillary Clinton’s integrity, refusing to take a position before ultimately deciding that yes, Clinton is trustworthy. Americans, especially juvenile voters, I strongly disagree.
(3) Ayotte is go on the offensive on Obamacare, an issue that Republican lawmakers should be raising across the country.
If the currently “R-shaded” races go red, Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson lose, and Rep. Heck replaces Harry Reid, Democrats would need to win Indiana, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire to achieve a 50/50 tie in the Senate (which would effectively be a one-vote majority if Hillary won). Can they do that? Sure. But they would have to thread the needle. So with the DNC pumping millions novel dollars in these races, I’ll leave you with Democrats are worried about Hillary ruining their chances of getting to the Senate, followed by an ad the NRSC is running in North Carolina against Richard Burr’s liberal opponent:
Senate Democrats began the 2016 election cycle with a bang, hoping that a favorable statewide ballot and tight Republican presidential primaries would translate into a majority in November. With less than two months left until Election Day, Democrats’ confidence has been shakenas Hillary Clinton suddenly finds herself trailing Donald Trump in some swing states, and a fresh round of polls shows GOP incumbents leading… That’s because other seats that once seemed within reach, like John McCain’s in Arizona, appear to be harder to win. And a prized Democratic recruit in Indiana, former Sen. Evan Bayh, has stumbled on the campaign trail, seeing his once-commanding lead now shrink to single digits. One common thread: Trump has nearly erased Clinton’s lead in some key swing states with primary Senate races, according to a novel round of polls. He has a 5-point lead in Ohio and a 3-point lead in Florida, according to a CNN-ORC poll.If I’m a Democratic senator, I have to start wondering: Should I run away from her? Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said of Clinton:
