Two months before the US presidential election, something extraordinary happened: Hillary Clinton lost the lead she had in early August. almost eight percentage points in a four-way poll. The national race is statistically close, with all the momentum in the battleground polls tilting in Donald Trump’s favor — or at least against Mrs. Clinton. What they once boasted about as explosion-in-the-making is causing Democrats earnest heartburn right now. Trump says the RealClearPolitics polling average has him ahead in Ohio, Florida and Iowa, within a point or two in North Carolina and Nevada, and has substantial gains in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia. (It’s worth noting that Georgia, Missouri and Arizona are also remarkably close, but if Trump is now very competitive in more time-honored swing states, it makes sense that similar momentum is helping to boost some of the red states Clinton has made inroads into.) we will get here?The formula is plain enough: an improved Trump, a scandal-ridden and lackluster Hillary, and a potentially game-changing event.
(1) Trump has improved as a candidate since hiring Kellyanne Conway as his campaign manager. Conway and the modern regime have begun by stopping the bleeding and cleaning up Trump’s act. The Republican nominee no longer fills his days with every impulsive whim that comes to mind, which too often fueled ugly and counterproductive distractions. Gone are the disgusting attacks on a Latino federal judge, the wildly conspiratorial musings about Ted Cruz’s father, and the breathtakingly indecent feud with a Gold Star Muslim family. Instead, we’ve seen a much more restrained Trump. A candidate who actually sticks to a script, sometimes even reading entire speeches from a prompter. A campaign that finally seems focused on beating a Democrat in a race, rather than reliving and rehashing the glory days of the GOP primaries. A grown man who doesn’t tweet a string of childish insults every night.
Two episodes illustrate the “new” Trump: a successful visit to Mexico, during which Trump appeared quite presidential in front of the cameras, and his disciplined (with one slip) response to a potential game-changer we’ll discuss shortly. If Trump can maintain this level of confidence and capitalize on the low expectations he’s set for himself over the past year, he has a real chance to maintain a positive trajectory in this race. [UPDATE: We’ll see how another round of birther controversy plays]. Quinnipiac National Poll released This week has shown that a vast majority of voters view Trump unfavorably, with a supermajority saying he is unfit to be president. Yet at the highest poll in the poll, he trailed Clinton by just two points. If he can show some poise, and even a slightly better grasp of the issues, in the upcoming debates, he can cast aside his greatest weaknesses in voters’ minds. And that may be enough.
(2) Hillary Clinton had a disastrous second half of August and early September, facing negative headline after negative headline about her family’s dubious, conflict-of-interest “charitable” activities and her damaging email scandal. Her team’s collective instinct, as usual, was to dismiss earnest questions as conspiracies and lie, lie, lie. That approach comes from the top. The problem for her is that as more information is revealed—despite her tireless efforts at suppression—it looks worse and worse. Donald Trump has refused to release his tax returns, his foreign business dealings are rife with shady and questionable connections, and much of his so-called charitable giving appears to be be a fraud. Despite all this, Americans believe that Hillary is less crystal clear than he is, and that is even close:
Some leftists blame the media for the rift, which is failing in its duties, rather than Clinton’s behavior and her well-deserved reputation. People really, Really don’t trust her. She built it all herself:
New Q Poll — Is Hillary Clinton Honest?
Likely US voters
Yes – 32%
No – 65%VOTERS 18-34
Yes – 21%
No – 77% (!!!!!)— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) September 15, 2016
It is almost as if voters have been watching Mr. and Mrs. Clinton for decades and have noticed her singular penchant for secrecy—exemplified by her wrongful deletion of thousands of work emails from an improper, national security-threatening email server she set up to avoid transparency and record-keeping requirements. We are constantly told that these are irrelevant issues, witch hunts, there is nothing to see hereetc. But the endless revelation of previous untruths continues to hurt her and she… proven incapacity a meaningful apology or being sincere. Her campaign run out of time the strategy was stupid, even if it used the time spent away from real voters to raise the level huge sums money. If there’s one thing the Clintons do very well, it’s operating at the intersection of substantial money and power. And despite the accusations of influence peddling that have swirled around her presidential campaign, they’ve shown no signs of self-correcting behavior:
SCOOP: @ClintonFdn throwing @Bill Clinton a lavish birthday party at New York’s Rainbow Room with @BonJoviBabs & @wyntonmarsalis https://t.co/nOkFHplgDQ
—Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) September 15, 2016
(3) The now-famous video of a dazed Mrs. Clinton jumping on her knees and falling forward during a 9/11 memorial service is disturbing, an image that cannot be unseen, and has to influence some undecided voters. Allahpundit explained why earlier this week: “Voters won’t take a chance on a candidate who appears to be chronically ill…Voters don’t like uncertainty. That may be the biggest reason Clinton continues to lead Trump, despite her disappointment. Trump is unpredictable, and his true political leanings are unclear; no one knows what he would do if given real power. Clinton is boring, unglamorous, and corrupt—but predictable.” If she loses her mantle as a safer, more stable option, she’s dead. As we mentioned earlier, doubts about her well-being are on the rise:
New HuffPost/YouGov: Clinton Back on the Trail, But Voters Are Less Confident About Her Health https://t.co/gVaceYvNUI photo:twitter.com/G8jOxdhdYk
— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) September 15, 2016
But what compounded the negative impact of her medical incident was her campaign’s vague and ambiguous response—both initially and for the next three days. She had allergies. Oh, she was overheated. She actually had pneumonia for a few days. It was contagious. Never mind, it wasn’t contagious. She had the flu—oops, we meant pneumonia. That’s exhausting. So why might this episode be groundbreaking? Because it combined widespread and long-standing doubts about her ethical fitness with modern and growing doubts about her physical fitness; a potential mega-narrative that reinforces many negative perceptions and fears about her. Summary:This race is uncertain because Mrs. Clinton still favored — but less comfortable than ever. Debates, news events and get-out-the-vote operations will all matter. Trump’s work isn’t done yet, but this confluence of events and trends has put him in a position many thought impossible just five weeks ago: If he plays his cards right, he can win.
