The 2014 election revealed one of the most incredible changes to the structure of the U.S. Senate in recent years.
Republicans didn’t just retake the upper house—they routed Democrats. They defeated some of their own petty political tricks, including three different Democratic candidates in Montana, as well as three races in other states.
Nothing will beat Election Day 1980, when Republicans won the majority and the Senate was won by 12 votes.
On Election Day 2014, nine seats were won, but there could have been 11 if not for fierce infighting in the Republican Party primaries.
So will 2016 be a landslide victory for the Democrats and facilitate them regain the majority in the upper house?
After the 2014 electionsI believed that Republicans would have no problem holding on to their majority. They have sturdy incumbents, many of whom have done better for their states and their constituents. Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) has worked across party lines on select issues to avoid alienating his base but to reach independents and even some Democrats.
I knew the battlefield would be wider for Democrats but more complex for Republicans.
After almost two years of campaigning, polls and surprises, I have to revise my predictions.
For example, I was certain that Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin would have no trouble being reelected. Yet poll after poll has documented a surprising but consistent lead for Democratic challenger Russ Feingold, the incumbent senator whom Johnson knocked off in 2010. That lead has narrowed recently, but the NRSC has not poured a lot of money into advertising…yet. This loss is deeply disappointing. Johnson is a vocal and effective legislator. He has fought for our country’s sturdy national security interests. He has focused on ending illegal immigration. Unlike other Republicans, this Tea Party candidate has not shied away from his values. Recent polls have brought good news, indicating a closer race, but the numbers still look bad for Johnson.
To the south of Johnson lives his colleague, Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois, who is going through a real drama.
He is a prime target on the Senate map, despite having raised a significant amount of money. The state is simply too blue. Kirk won in 2010, which was not only a bad year, but a wave of voter discontent that carried Kirk into office. He ran against one corrupt challenger and replaced a corrupt candidate who decided not to even seek reelection. This year, Kirk is running against a decorated wounded veteran. Despite the accusations of abuse and incompetence that have dogged Rep. Tammy Duckworth, she is poised to win.
Other places that weren’t supposed to be in the running but have now become competitive, including Indiana. Evan Bayh retired in 2010, smelling blood in the water for the Democrats. Now he’s back, hoping for a bigger Democratic turnout to facilitate him get back in office. So many unhappy, worrying repeat offenders. Could Indiana end up with two Democratic senators in 2016?
And now the good news.
Republicans have a chance to keep their majority.
Ohio’s Rob Portman is running a clever campaign. He’s raised more money than any of his peers. Black activist groups have backed the senator, as have labor unions, which means more campaign money.
His Democratic rival, Ted Strickland, is struggling to raise funds and build a positive reputation with Ohio voters who don’t want him back in office. Major liberal headlines reported that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was pulling its investments from the state. Oh boy!
In Florida, Marco Rubio had gained enough notoriety to become a household name in the swing state of the Sunshine State. After much behind-the-scenes prodding, Rubio decided to run for reelection, although he had decided to retire after the presidential election.
Despite losing the Florida presidential primary by a landslide, he crushed his opponents to keep his Senate seat. He now consistently outscores his Democratic rival by at least five points. The seat is no longer in shaky hands. Rubio will return to the Senate for a second term, but let’s hope he stops pushing immigration “reform” and fights for conservative causes with renewed fervor.
There’s one more state that’s really changing its mind and going Republican again: Pennsylvania.
Sen. Pat Toomey was on a roll earlier this year, particularly with Democratic infighting hurting his chances of winning the seat. Toomey ran against a weakened challenger in 2010 who had ousted the incumbent, turncoat RINO Democrat Arlen Specter, in which Toomey won 51 percent.
Will he win by a larger margin in 2016? Incredible voter outreach, well-informed outreach efforts and newsletters, and a unique blend of proven conservatism and purple pragmatism could facilitate him — or not, as his rival Katie McGinty is showing by defeating incumbent Toomey, within the margin of error.
Chuck Grassley of Iowa is doing very well, holding his own against Obama’s Supreme Court nominee while fighting tough against illegal immigration. His ratings have also improved against Donald Trump. Despite shaky polls and salivating liberal media pundits, Roy Blunt of Missouri, a seasoned politician with a long résumé, will show Democrats he can win the “Show Me State.”
New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte has a tougher fight. Despite patent reform, her support for immigration “reform” could undermine voter morale. If Trump’s standing improves, Ayotte’s foundation of support could bolster her chances in the Granite State.
Republicans could also take the seat from Democrats. Now, with a humiliated and greatly weakened Democratic frontrunner “Dirty” Harry Reid no longer feeling so lucky, Republican Rep. Joe Heck appears poised to win.
In Colorado, Darryl Glen shocked voters in a crowded primary. With little support in the general election, he has little chance of taking the seat from Michael Bennett, although he certainly deserves to lose.
The statistics look better for Republican senators.
2016 Election Prediction: Republicans hold the Senate 52-48.
