Before the 2016 election began, Republicans already faced a tough Senate map. Democrats are defending 10 seats to the GOP’s 24. Seven of the Republican-held seats are in states Obama won in 2012, and Democrats need only five to regain control of the upper chamber (four if Tim Kaine is elected vice president).
Moving on to the present, we have a presidential candidate who, according to the polls, is to burden Republican Party candidates for Senate.
Kelly Ayotte, Ron Johnson and Pat Toomey are fighting the fight of their lives. Mark Kirk from Illinois appears be a dead man walking. All of the candidates listed have seen declines in Trump’s support in their states that parallel their own declines.
The exceptions are in Ohio and Florida. Rubio has been doing well in the polls recently. Rob Portman enjoyed the best polling of any GOP candidate running in a state that Obama won.
The Democrats’ Senate takeover could be hampered by GOP victories in several swing states where they have an opportunity to play offense. Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring, and the race to replace him in Nevada is considered uncertain. Each election could be the difference between party control over the next two years.
As the Trump campaign continues to stumble, more and more outside groups shifting resources for lower elections. The Koch Network will not contribute any money or field operations to assist the Republican presidential candidate.
Instead, Americans for Prosperity and Freedom Partners are going all-in on the Senate candidates. AFP has about 700 paid staffers in 35 states. It has already spent $3.5 million on Sen. Toomey’s behalf in the Keystone State and plans to be a major force in competitive states. In a surprise move that suggests it is prioritizing high-risk spots, the Koch network has pulled its ads in Florida — citing peace of mind from Rubio’s poll numbers.
Although it is unlikely, the Republican National Committee has been called upon to drop support for Trump and focus entirely on the Republican Party candidates.
