WASHINGTON — Montana U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, who is responsible for flipping the chamber from blue to red in November, said Tuesday he expects his home state to play a key role in securing a Republican majority in January.
Daines, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that of the four swing states that will decide control of the Senate, Montana has the best chance of electing a modern senator over incumbent Democrat Jon Tester.
“Of all the states that we’re dealing with right now, this would be the most likely to increase if you were to judge it by the curve,” Daines said.
Republicans expect to win the West Virginia Senate seat currently held by retiring independent Joe Manchin III. But they will need one more election to hold at least 51 seats in the 100-member chamber and secure a majority.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter calls the races in Ohio, Michigan, Montana and Nevada uncertain, while the remaining Senate races are all heavily contested by either Democrats or Republicans.
Electoral trends
Daines said he expects the November election to follow the trend seen in 2016 and 2020, in which the winner of a Senate race closely matches the presidential candidate who wins a state.
“The only exception in the 69 races in 2016 and 2020 where Trump was on the ticket was Susan Collins — where Joe Biden won Maine, but Susan Collins won the Senate race,” Daines said, referring to former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden and the current GOP senator from Maine. “History shows that in a presidential year, all of these races start to line up as we get to the end of October, and then on Election Day, importantly, we line up pretty closely with the presidential vote.”
Daines, who was interviewed by members of the Regional Reporters Association at the Republican National Senatorial Committee offices in Washington, said the party is applying lessons learned from the 2022 campaign to this year’s election.
Democrats were “effectively” targeting their message two years ago, while Republicans had “candidates who were able to win the primaries but weren’t as appealing in the general election,” Daines said.
“And that’s why one of the key strategies here at the NRSC was to be intentional about the primaries,” Daines said, adding that he wanted GOP candidates who won the primaries to enter the general election campaign with fewer “battle wounds and scars.”
Daines said he does not expect reproductive rights and democracy issues to play as large a role in voting this year as they will in 2022.
“In 2022, Democrats talked a lot about abortion, a lot about January 6, a lot about the threat to democracy,” Daines said. “I think both of those issues will be less relevant in the 2024 election.”
Speaking specifically about abortion, he said Republican Senate candidates “are doing a good job of getting the message out in their states.”
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Tommy Garcia said in a written statement that “Senate campaigns are candidate battles, and Democratic senators will win because we have the better candidates on every battleground.”
“Steve Daines’ failure to vet candidates has left Republican senators saddled with deeply flawed recruits embroiled in an endless series of scandals: they’ve been caught lying about their biographies, they’re facing financial troubles, and they’re campaigning on a platform of deeply unpopular policies,” Garcia added.
Montana Focus
Daines expects Montana voters to choose Republican candidate Tim Sheehy over Tester in November, citing data from previous election years and the fact that recently resettled people in the state were the first to register to vote.
“We’ve had a net migration of center-right voters to Montana since Jon Tester was last on the ballot,” Daines said. “He won by 18,000 votes over Matt Rosendale in 2018. We’ve had 100,000 new voters move to Montana since 2018. If you look at the rolls, it’s a 2-to-1 advantage, Republicans.”
Daines said he calls these displaced people “COWS” because they are leaving California, Oregon and Washington to live in Montana — the first letters of those states’ names. He also says they do not intend to carry the blue-leaning politics of their former states to their modern home.
“They’re refugees, not missionaries,” Daines said. “They’re moving to Montana to join us, not to change us. And that’s how the political numbers are changing in Montana; it’s just mathematically harder for Jon Tester to win.”
Daines said the mid-July poll results reflect what he experienced before the last election.
“The polling data that we’re seeing from Tim Sheehy is exactly what Steve Bullock and I were looking at four years ago,” Daines said, referring to the former Democratic governor who ran for Senate in 2020. “And we ended up winning by 10 points.”
Add to that the millions of dollars Democrats have spent on Tester’s re-election campaign, and Daines said Republicans have a good chance.
“(Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer and Tester have spent $45 million on negative ads against Tim Sheehy since November of last year,” Daines said. “We’ve never seen anything like this in any Senate race in the history of the United States this early, this much money spent. And the fact that Tim Sheehy is now in the polls is pretty extraordinary.”
DSCC Chairman Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, told States Newsroom on Tuesday that he expects Tester to be re-elected.
“He’s wrong. He’s not going to flip Montana. Jon Tester is a strong candidate. He’s authentic. He’s running against a seriously flawed candidate that the Republicans put up. They clearly didn’t do any background checks before they recruited him to run in Montana,” Peters said. “And the people of Montana want someone who’s authentic, who’s lived in Montana and who understands the challenges of the people of Montana. And that’s Jon Tester.”
Nevada Battlefield
Daines is also hopeful the GOP will take Nevada, where Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen faces a challenge from Republican candidate Sam Brown.
During the 2022 Senate race, he noted that Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican candidate Adam Laxalt by about 8,000 votes.
“This was the tightest Senate race of the cycle. That’s four votes per district,” Daines said. “It’s not lost, certainly on both sides of the aisle.”
Daines said that if Laxalt had run in a presidential election year, when rural voters tend to turn out more often than in midterm election years, Laxalt would have won the Senate seat.
“Looking at the latest poll numbers in Nevada, Rosen’s vote is very low. She’s in the lower 40s. That’s a big warning sign for an incumbent,” Daines said. “It also shows that Sam Brown has a lot of potential right now.”
Michigan Race
Daines said that in Michigan, which represents another chance for Republicans to gain and potentially expand their Senate majority, he is not worried that negative ads from the Republican primary will affect their prospects in the general election.
“You always worry — whether you’re Democratic or Republican — about damaging primaries. And something we’ve done at the NRSC in this particular election cycle is intentionally support candidates early in the primaries,” Daines said. “And Michigan is an example of that.”
He added that both the NRSC and Trump had given early support to Republican Party candidate Mike Rogers.
“And so far this election cycle, there’s been $250 million less spent on Republican primaries than there was last cycle,” Daines said. “Democrats have spent $60 million more on their primaries than there was last cycle. And part of that is the strategy of us having to endorse candidates early and trying to minimize primary battles.”
Daines wasn’t particularly concerned about recent polls that show Democratic candidate Elissa Slotkin ahead of Rogers in a likely general election showdown.
“This is not a new phenomenon,” Daines said. “We are generally behind.”
Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey hope
Daines is pinning his hopes on Republican candidates in other states that traditionally send Democrats to the Senate.
In Maryland, former Gov. Larry Hogan is expected to have a chance to defeat Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the open seat.
Daines said that when Republicans researched Hogan’s chances before he entered the race, they found he enjoyed more support than when he left office.
While Daines said he knows Kamala Harris will likely win Maryland by “25 points or more,” he still expects Hogan to have a powerful campaign.
“This is not a new phenomenon for Larry Hogan. And that’s why he’s going to run in this unconventional style,” Daines said, noting that Hogan has distanced himself from Trump.
Daines attempted to distance himself somewhat from the NRSC and the Aug. 13 Republican Senate primary in Minnesota when asked about the candidates, though he said he stood by his earlier statement that Royce White could not win either the GOP primary or the general election.
“We’ll wait and see how the Minnesota primary goes. Again, it’s coming up pretty quickly here, mid-August,” Daines said. “But yeah, I think Joe Fraser is going to be the more electable candidate, certainly in the general election.”
Regardless of which GOP candidate wins the primary, he or she will face Democrat Sen. Amy Klobuchar in the general election, vying for a seat rated as “solidly Democratic” by The Cook Political Report.
The recent conviction of Democratic New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez also prompted Daines to cross out of the state altogether, though the chances of that happening are slim.
Curtis Bashaw is, in his opinion, “a very strong candidate.”
“It’s a race we’re watching closely,” Daines said. “Of course, when you have a spot, it’s an opportunity. And Menendez’s problems don’t help the overall picture.”
Menendez is not seeking re-election and will resign from the U.S. Senate in August. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, who was in the photo for cleaning up trash at the United States Capitol following the January 6 attack, was elected as the Democratic candidate.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as “solid Democratic.”
