This year’s Senate map is extremely favorable to Republicans, who are currently in the minority in the upper house (51 to 49). The 2024 map presents an excellent opportunity for the GOP to not only regain its majority in the fall, but also to decisively — perhaps enhance their numbers ahead of more tough maps in coming cycles. With Joe Manchin retiring West Virginia, this deep-red, pro-Trump state is all but guaranteed to elect a Republican to this open seat in November, which would mean the balance of power would be 50-50, assuming no current red seats turn blue. Democrats’ chances on this front are slim because in Republican territory they can only play offense, while in other red to purple states they play pretty good defense. They are spending a fortune trying to unseat Ted Cruz Texasand maybe try to make something happen against Rick Scott Florida – but that’s really saying something if these are the Democrats’ most “vulnerable” options for winning over them.
On the other hand, apart from a quasi-slam dunk in West Virginia, Republicans have a chance to win current Democratic seats in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, PennsylvaniaAND Wisconsin. The GOP nominated unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in Arizona, where Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is not seeking re-election. Voters seem rather distrustful of Lake, who follows far-left democrat Ruben Gallego – whose campaign his campaign will continue a very “progressive” ideology and his ugly personal luggage – in early polls. Republicans will field a a very impressive candidate in Montana, where Democrats are counting on an abortion referendum to enhance turnout and save phony moderate Sen. Jon Tester, who votes like Chuck Schumer with a flat haircut. Democrats also hope Republicans have chosen an over-Trumpy candidate in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s left-populist brand will face its toughest test yet. Depending on how certain campaigns are run and how Trump performs at the top of the polls, reasonable challengers from other rust belt states could wedge themselves into the mix, causing relative confusion. In Nevada, unassuming, typical Democrat Jacky Rosen faces a problem decorated wounded warrior in a state that Trump’s polls were pointing to extremely mighty so far.
Given the favorable map, Republicans should they have a real chance of winning three or more seats this year, but as we have seen recently, “should” and “will” are separate concepts. And then there it is Maryland. It’s a bit surreal to even mention this deep blue state in the context of this analysis, but Republicans are nominating a highly popular, ideologically moderate governor for two terms in the race for the seat being vacated by the outgoing Democrat. In 2014, the year of the red tide, Larry Hogan won the governorship of Maryland by about four points, defying the polls during. Four years later, in the blue wave year of the Trump era, Hogan won re-election over 13 points, winning 56 percent of the vote. The process for 2024 is still quite early, but recent Washington Post Office study suggests Hogan could prove to be a powerful force again:
📊 Maryland Senate Poll: WP/UMD
🟥 Hogan 49% (+12)
🟦 Throne 37%
.
🟥 Hogan 50% (+14)
🟦 Alsobrooks 36%
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Democratic Senate
Throne 34%
Alsobrooks 27%
Undecided 39%
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Favorite
Hogana 64-23 (+41)
Tron 33-21 (+12)
Alsobrooks 26-15 (+11)
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D53/R24/I23 | 3-5/12 | camping vehicles https://t.co/83Yh1DlLiq pic.twitter.com/dcxfW5inw7— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 20, 2024
The Democratic primary will resolve itself, and many Democratic voters will likely “go home” to their party even if they like or respect Hogan – especially with Trump at the top of the ticket in a state Trump lost by more than 30 points in 2020. Virtually no way. , for Hogan to maintain that double-digit lead, but just look at the gains (+41) he’s hard-earned over his eight years in power. The eventual Democratic nominee will spend substantial, perhaps now with national aid, to bring Hogan down. But painting-the-numbers attacks on “MAGA Republicans” or whatever just won’t be as effective as they would like with Hogan, who is not that guy. He’s running a different kind of campaign, building on the independent reputation he’s built and honed over the better part of a decade. He too leaning solid supporting Israel, contrasting with Maryland Israel-enemy Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen.
Moreover, Hogan’s potential Democratic opponents are unimpressive. David Trone, now a congressman, is a self-financed millionaire who looks like a magazine picture of a prosperous white man. He’s also now dealing with a racial slur scandal and apologizes for using an offensive term during an on-camera budget hearing, regardless of the circumstances:
🚨Maryland Democratic Senate Leader, Republican David Trone, utters racial slurs during a House hearing:
“Republican f***boo.”
Trone discussed tax policy with OMB Director Shalanda Young, who is a black woman.
Trone later apologized, explaining that he meant to say “bugaboo”. pic.twitter.com/kdrR33V8In
— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) March 22, 2024
A group of five Black House Democrats have endorsed Angela Alsobrooks’ U.S. Senate bid in Maryland, days after her primary opponent, Republican David Trone, used a racial slur during a congressional hearing.https://t.co/YoPpN73VKb
— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) March 25, 2024
He grovels:
During a recent House budget hearing, Maryland Democratic Rep. David Trone used a racial slur and apologized for it.
Read the full apology and listen to what was said here: https://t.co/5t7DGifnOD pic.twitter.com/imCvK5ToAu
— WBAL NewsRadio 1090 and FM 101.5 (@wbalradio) March 25, 2024
Trone Allies’ opponent, a lesser-known black woman who struggled to raise funds and break through, makes this an issue. Political analyst Josh Kraushaar told my radio listeners this week that while Hogan may still be the underdog due to the state’s partisan bias, it’s something like “Perfect Storm“ is brewing, which will likely force Democrats to invest significant resources in a seat they expected to win on Layout — and which could realistically be won by Hogan. I’ll leave you with a sense of how Hogan feels positioning yourself in this race. ‘You know me:’
I’m running for the United States Senate – not to serve one party – but to stand up to both sides, fight for Maryland, and fix our nation’s broken politics. That’s what I did as Governor of Maryland, and that’s exactly how I will serve Maryland in the Senate. Let’s get back to work. pic.twitter.com/d0TuZchAtN
— Governor Larry Hogan (@GovLarryHogan) February 9, 2024
Moments after we declared our candidacy, the exact same inflammatory rhetoric and false attacks erupted again as in 2014 and 2018. Marylanders will not fall for this. pic.twitter.com/EP27wZpDwY
— Governor Larry Hogan (@GovLarryHogan) February 16, 2024
Die-hard Republicans may bristle at Hogan’s centrism and criticism of Trump, but he is the best option they will ever have for the Maryland senator. Will conservatives consolidate, and will enough independents and Democrats be willing to send to Washington a governor they generally like with a bright red (R) next to his name? Wait for further information.
